Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 8 2019 – Potential Reversal or Sideways Move

Monday saw no actual signs of weakness following Friday’s massive rally. That’s unusual and tonight SPX Chart shows signs of a potential reversal or at least a move sideways.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jan 7 2019 

The S&P chart remains bearish with 6 sell signals. The index closed at the 2550 level on Monday. The candlestick at the close showed the potential for a reversal or possibly a sideways day.

The 100 day is still slipping lower as it moves away from the 200 day, signaling the correction will continue.

Note how the Upper Bollinger Band is falling lower and now the Lower Bollinger Band is beginning to rise. This could be a new signal to the upside for a few days before either the index enters a Bollinger Bands Squeeze or the S&P moves back lower.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jan 7 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was confirmed today.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is resistance

2675 is light resistance

2650 is light resistance

2620 is light resistance

2600 is strong resistance.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is now resistance.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jan 8 2019 

The technical indicators are pointing to further advances for the rally. The closing candlestick however showed the potential for a reversal move which would mean a negative day, or for a sideways day to develop on Tuesday. However the remaining technical indicators are all bullish and point to a further advance for the markets. Unless something unknown should appear, even if Tuesday is a sideways or lower close day, the outlook is still higher overall for the indexes.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 1 2024 – Bounce But Lower – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw stocks tumble as investors decided to take profits from the recent rally. Economic reports on Tuesday did not favor the Fed cutting interest rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the month and the start of May. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the index trade choppily in a sideways trend until the final hour when the SPX dipped down below 5100 but then found buyers and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024 discuss the outlook for the final week of April. There are a large number of trades outlined ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw investors continue the rally despite the PCE number showing far more weakness than expected. The rally on Friday though saw lower volumes which could ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024 discuss the outlook following the surprisingly low GDP and strong earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and others on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday's GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024 discuss the expected sell-off and weakness after the recent bounce in equities. There are a large number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw the rally stall. With the rally stalling investors took profits which weighed on stocks. The close saw the SPX up just 1 point at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024 discuss the second bounce on Tuesday and the outlook for the remainder of the week. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024 discuss the bounce on Monday. There are trade ideas on a wide number of stocks including Nucor ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 – Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the long awaited bounce from the recent selling and market breadth was bullish. The SPX rose 43 points recovering all of Friday's loss to ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of the fourth week of April. There are also comments on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 22 2024 – No Change – Deeply Oversold Bounce Possible

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw stocks open flat and try to climb within the first 15 minutes. When that failed the selling continued. The early afternoon saw a rally ....... Read More