Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Thursday’s GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. However buyers took advantage of the plunge and snapped up stocks that were being pummeled.

By the end of the day much of the market collapse had been recovered and the SPX closed down 23 points to 5048 and the NASDAQ was down 101 points to 15611.

After hours on Thursday earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), SNAP and others surprised with their strength and those stocks accelerated after the close. This has setup Friday for a higher close.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Apr 25 2024 to see what investors should expect on Fri Apr 26 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Apr 25 2024

The index closed lower but well off the day’s low and above the Lower Bollinger Band and 100 day moving average.

The closing candlestick is signaling another bounce is likely for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is falling sharply and down at the 50 day for a major down signal.

The 50 day moving average is still rising. It is at 5122 which is up from yesterday. This is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4743 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower and down at the 100 day moving average which is bearish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is also moving lower which is bearish.

The S&P chart while bearish, is still bullish for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Apr 25 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 

Despite most of the technical indicators as signaling lower or falling, the earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Snap and others were strong and after hours prices rose dramatically. That means Friday will move higher and more stocks should join into Friday’s rally.

All the economic events on Thursday pointed to an economy as slowing. On Friday we get the latest PCE numbers and they could impact market action although I still expect Microsoft, Alphabet and others to drag the market higher even if the PCE numbers are poor.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The main events this week are PMI on Tuesday with a more important indicator, the PCE on Friday.

Monday:

No events

Tuesday: 

9:45 S&P flash services PMI which was expected to come in slightly higher at 52 but fell to 50.9

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI which was expected slightly higher at 52 but came in at 49.9

10:00 New home sales were estimated at 669,000 by stunned at 693,000

Wednesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders came in as expected at 2.6%

Thursday:

8:30 GDP was expected at 2.2% but came in at 1.6%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims was expected at 215,000 up just slightly from last week but came in at 207,000

8:30 Advanced retail inventories was expected at 0.5% but came in lower at 0.3%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories was expected at 0.5% but came in at -0.4%

Friday:

8:30 Personal Income is expected at 0.5%

8:30 Personal spending in expected at 0.7%

8:30 PCE Index is estimated at 0.3%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated at 2.6%

8:30 Core PCE index is expected at 0.3%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated at 2.7%

10:00 Consumer Sentiment is estimated at 77.9