Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much of the credit came from the PMI numbers which were lower than expected prompting many analysts to switch back to rate cuts for July.
The S&P rose 60 points to close at 5070. The NASDAQ rose 245 points to close at 15696. The two-day rally has recovered a large part of the decline. The SPX is now down just 195 points for a 3.7% decline.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Apr 23 2024 to see what investors should expect on Wed Apr 24 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Apr 23 2024
The index closed above the 100 day moving average and well above the Lower Bollinger Band. The signals are bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday although signaling some weakness to the rally should be expected on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is falling sharply which is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is starting to move higher again. It is at 5119 which is up from yesterday. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4737 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which could be signaling the downturn is over. At present it is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is still dipping which is bearish.
The S&P chart is still bearish for Tuesday and indicates that the bounce on Monday was a technical oversold bounce, not the start of a recovery rally.
The chart is more bullish than bearish despite some signals that Wednesday or Thursday may run into some selling.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 23 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative. It is oversold. It is signaling higher for Wednesday.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Apr 2. On Tue Apr 23 2024 the down signal and histogram lot strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising. It is signaling a higher day for Wednesday.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is still oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and signaling tomorrow will be higher.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling a higher day is likely for Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is resistance |
| 5075 is resistance |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024
The technical indicators are rapidly switching to up signals. The oversold signals are pretty well gone from the indicators.
There are some signals advising a bit of weakness could occur on Wednesday as the rally slows, but the close will be higher.
The PMI numbers on Tuesday pointed to possible lower inflation as the numbers were lower than estimated and lower than the prior readings. Analysts were quick to return to the “rate cut band wagon” as soon as the numbers were released. Most moved back to July with some expecting a rate cut in June.
On Wednesday investors get the latest durable goods orders. Friday is the next big inflation number when PCE is released.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main events this week are PMI on Tuesday with a more important indicator, the PCE on Friday.
Monday:
No events
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI which was expected to come in slightly higher at 52 but fell to 50.9
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI which was expected slightly higher at 52 but came in at 49.9
10:00 New home sales were estimated at 669,000 by stunned at 693,000
Wednesday:
8:30 Durable goods order are expected to rise to 2.6%