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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close

Apr 30, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Dips LikelyPrior Trading Day Summary:

Monday saw the index trade choppily in a sideways trend until the final hour when the SPX dipped down below 5100 but then found buyers and closed back above it at 5116.

The NASDAQ rose 55 points to close at 15983. On Tuesday morning a number of big cap stocks report including PayPal, Eli Lilly, McDonalds, 3M Company and Coca Cola which will impact the open. For the close on Tuesday Amazon.com, Advanced Micro Devices, Supermicro, Starbucks, Mondelez, Clorox and others report while on Wednesday we get Apple Stock. That means the chance Tuesday will end lower is slim while investors continue to stay bullish on these big cap stocks.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Apr 29 2024 to see what investors should expect on Tue Apr 30 2024.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Apr 29 2024

The index closed at the 50 day moving average.

The closing candlestick is signaling dips probable for Tuesday.

The 21 day moving average is falling sharply and is below the 50 day moving average. This is a major down signal.

The 50 day moving average is starting to turn lower which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4750 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing.

The Lower Bollinger Band is now turning sideways and at the 100 day moving average.

The Upper Bollinger Band is also moving lower which is bearish.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Tuesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Apr 29 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Apr 2. On Mon Apr 29 2024 the down signal was replaced with a neutral signal.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising. It is signaling a higher day for Tuesday.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close for Tuesday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5275 is resistance
5250 is resistance
5225 is resistance
5200 is resistance
5190 is resistance
5175 is resistance
5150 is resistance
5125 is resistance
5115 is resistance
5100 is resistance
5075 is resistance
5050 is support
5025 is support
5000 is light support
4990 is light support
4975 is light support
4950 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 

The closing candlestick on Monday is advising we will see dips on Tuesday but still continue to hold a bullish bias. The technical indicators are mixed but most are signaling higher. The MACD technical indicator has lost the down signal and is neutral in its outlook for today.

With a number of big cap stocks reporting earnings today and Apple STock on Wednesday, the chance of a pullback today is slim to none.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The main events this week are the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday followed by the April employment report on Friday.

Monday:

No reports of significance. This usually favors the bulls.

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index is expected to rise slightly to 6.7% from 6.6%

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip slightly to 103.5 from 104.7.






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