Prior Trading Day Summary:
Monday saw the long awaited bounce from the recent selling and market breadth was bullish. The SPX rose 43 points recovering all of Friday’s loss to close back above 5000 at 5010.
The NASDAQ jumped 169 points recovering half of Friday’s decline. New lows on the NASDAQ fell back to 184 but were still well ahead of new highs which came in at just 40.
The rally was overdue but signals tonight after the close point to Monday as being just a bounce.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Apr 22 2024 to see if the outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 is indeed lower.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Apr 22 2024
The index closed above the 100 day moving average and within the Lower Bollinger Band. Both of these are often bullish but the candlestick at the close signaled bearish.
The closing candlestick is signaling bearish and the shadow at the close is signaling a dip again on Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is falling sharply which is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is moving sideways. It is at 5118, unchanged from Friday. This is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4734 which is bullish but the 100 day is turning sideways which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling and nearing the 100 day. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish.
The S&P chart is still bearish for Tuesday and indicates that the bounce on Monday was a technical oversold bounce, not the start of a recovery rally.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Apr 22 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising slightly and negative. It is oversold. It is signaling lower for Tuesday.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Apr 2. On Mon Apr 22 2024 the down signal remained strong. The MACD histogram is also strongly negative.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and oversold. It is signaling a higher day for Tuesday.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place. It is very oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and leaving oversold readings. It is signaling Tuesday will end higher.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and oversold. It is signaling a higher day is likely for Tuesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is resistance |
| 5075 is resistance |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024
The technical indicators are still oversold but most are signaling a chance for a higher day again on Tuesday. However overall they remain strongly bearish and are warning investors to stay cautious on Tuesday. The S&P chart in particular is quite bearish.
Investors get the latest PMI numbers on Tuesday. They could move the market up or down, depending on the numbers.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main events this week are PMI on Tuesday with a more important indicator, the PCE on Friday.
Monday:
No events
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI which is expected to come in slightly higher at 52.
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI which is expected slightly higher at 52.
10:00 New home sales are estimated at 669,000 up from 662,000