Prior Trading Day Summary
On Mon Aug 3 2026 oil prices fell as did bond yields. This seemed to be enough to keep investors buying the rally and pushing stocks still higher.
The SPX rose 110 points to close at 7600 just 20 points from its all-time high. Volume was 5.3 billion shares traded with 67% of all stocks rising by the close.
The NASDAQ climbed 540 points ending the day at 25,913. Volume was 11.6 billion. 72% of all stocks were higher by the close.
With many stocks entering overbought readings, let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Aug 3 2026 to see if stocks will continue the rally on Tue Aug 4 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Aug 3 2026
The index ended the day at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a short shadow which indicates small dips may occur Tuesday but they will find ready bbuyers. This is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7486. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7474. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7282. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7041. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is over and stocks are positioned to break higher out of the latest squeeze..
The SPX chart is bullish for Tue Aug 4 2026 but also advises stocks are becoming overbought.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 3 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive. This is bullish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri Jul 17 2026. On Mon Aug 3 2026 it issued a weak up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place which is bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought. This is bullish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising which is bullish. It is signaling Tuesday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7650 is resistance |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is support |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 4 2026
For Tue Aug 4 2026 the technical indicators are signaling a higher day is expected. The MACD technical indicator flashed an unconfirmed up signal. I expect it will be confirmed on Tuesday by the close.
While some stocks are moving into overbought readings, there is still room to the upside before larger dips are expected. There are no economic reports on Tuesday that should affect market direction.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 US Manufacturing PMI for July came in as estimated at 53.9
10:00 ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI was higher than estimated at 55.6
10:00 Construction spending for June was lower than estimated coming in at -0.1%
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade for June is estimated to fall to -$72.9 billion
10:00 Job openings for June are estimated at 7.4 million
10:00 Factory orders for June are estimated to rise to 0.3% from -1.3% prior