Prior Trading Day Summary
Wednesday saw stocks rally stronger and more broad-based but there were some concerns.
The SPX rose 44 points to close at 7757. Volume was 5 billion, 100 million less than yesterday. By the close 46% of all trades were rising and 49% of stocks higher by the close. The SPX is now up 97 points for a gain of 63% against last week’s sell-off.
The NASDAQ rose 278 points closing at 26,702. Volume rose to 8.2 billion and new highs rose to 77. New lows fell to 249 but are still well above new highs. This is bearish. Up volume comprised 63% of all trading on Wednesday a bullish sign. By the close 55% of all stocks on the index were rising. The NASDAQ has recovered 562 points for a gain of 45% against last week’s drop.
Both indexes by the close on Wednesday were sitting with numbers that suggest either the rally will begin to fail, or the indexes are going to move still higher.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Oct 21 2026 to see what they predict for Thu Oct 22 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 21 2026
The index ended the day below the Upper Bollinger Band but above the 21 and 50 day moving averages and the Lower Bollinger Band. This is still bearish but a good sign for a potential move still higher.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday with a top shadow which often signals dips today could be deeper than anticipated.
The 21 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 7734. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 7704. This is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7571. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7316. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 21 and 50 day moving average and turning lower. This is bullish if it continues to fall. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.
The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 21 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative. This is still bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 15 2026. The down signal was weaker on Wed Oct 21 2026.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising which is bullish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising signaling that Thursday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7850 is resistance |
| 7825 is resistance |
| 7800 is resistance |
| 7780 is resistance |
| 7750 is resistance |
| 7700 is resistance |
| 7650 is resistance |
| 7600 is support |
| 7570 is support |
| 7550 is support |
| 7500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 22 2026
The technical indicators are still bearish in general but there is some strength showing up in a few bullish signals and that indicates while dips are likely today they may still be an opportunity to setup trades.
Earnings from META on Wednesday saw the stock rally after hours but today we could see that change with news after hours yesterday that the company plans to raise billions more in capital through share offerings. Overall this is bearish for existing shareholders.
Tesla shares popped after hours on Wednesday with their latest earnings release but today I won’t be surprised if the stock moves lower instead.
Other companies reported earning after hours on Wednesday that were good but not blow out numbers. Those included Texas Instruments Stock (TXN) and International Business Machines Stock (IBM) to mention just two. This will weigh on the market today.
On Thursday the rally enters a fourth day and the chance of a large dip is a possibility as the indexes have recovered roughly 50% of the sell-off. The technical indicators have been warning that the rally is a bounce and not a recovery. Today we will find out if the rally can continue or ends.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct is estimated to slip to 31 from 32 prior – this is bearish
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing Starts were lower than estimated at 1.2 million for Sep
10:00 Pending home sales month over month plunged -7.3% far worse than estimates of -0.4%
Wednesday:
No reports
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Oct 17 are expected to rise just 1,000 to 200,000
10:00 Leading indicators for Sep are estimated to remain unchanged at -0.1%