Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 20 2019 – Sideways, Bigger Dips, Bias Up

Friday started off with a rally that pushed the SPX to 2885. But sellers took charge in the afternoon and the index struggled to stay positive. By the end of the day, the S&P had turned negative and closed at 2859.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri May 17 2019

On Friday the index closed back below the 50 day moving average and below the 21 day. The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday.

The lower Bollinger Bands is still falling as is the 21 day moving average. The Lower Bollinger Band is ready to fall below the 100 day moving average which will be another bearish signal if it happens.

The 50 day is beginning to weaken but the 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing.

The chart is bearish for the start of the week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 17 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wednesday May 1. On Friday the down signal was weaker than Thursday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways which indicates prices are not expected to change by much on Monday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2950 is resistance

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon May 20 2019 

The technical indicators are still mixed. There are 3 signals falling, one signal sideways, one signal rising, one up signal and one down signal.

Investors should be able to maintain an upward bias as long as China does not retaliate further with trade with the USA. If they do, the index will fall back.

For Monday I am expecting deeper dips which will be opportunities to place more trades.

Overall the market is showing signs of staying sideways but keeping a slight bias up. For that reason I am expecting a close that will be slightly higher.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Tue May 7 2024 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks continued their advance. The only dip of any size was just before 12:30 when the SPX fell almost to 5150 which brought in ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 6 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 6 2024 discuss the outlook for the second week of May following Friday's April non-farm payroll numbers. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 6 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Up Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday the jobs report came in weaker than expected. With investors believing this could bring some relief to interest rates for the Fed, investors poured ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 3 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 3 2024 discuss the expectations for April's unemployment report. There are a large number of trades outlined for today. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 3 2024 – All About The April Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors pushed stocks higher for the second time this week, ahead of Friday's April jobs report. The S&P gained gained 45 points to close ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024 discuss the FOMC interest rate decision and Fed's news conference. There are a large number of trades ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 2 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors moved stocks higher during the Fed's news conference but then sold those same stocks lower in the final half hour in a wild ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of May. There are a large number of trades outlined for ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 1 2024 – Bounce But Lower – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw stocks tumble as investors decided to take profits from the recent rally. Economic reports on Tuesday did not favor the Fed cutting interest rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the month and the start of May. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the index trade choppily in a sideways trend until the final hour when the SPX dipped down below 5100 but then found buyers and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024 discuss the outlook for the final week of April. There are a large number of trades outlined ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw investors continue the rally despite the PCE number showing far more weakness than expected. The rally on Friday though saw lower volumes which could ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024 discuss the outlook following the surprisingly low GDP and strong earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and others on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday's GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. ....... Read More