Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 3 2024 – All About The April Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday investors pushed stocks higher for the second time this week, ahead of Friday’s April jobs report.

The S&P gained gained 45 points to close at 5064. The NASDAQ rose 235 points to end the day at 15,840.

While Friday’s opening will be all about the April jobs numbers, the technical indicators will have a say as well.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu May 2 2024 to see what investors should expect on Fri May 3 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 2 2024

The index closed below the 21 and 50 day moving averages which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is signaling that Thursday was just a bounce.

The 21 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average for a down signal.

The 50 day moving average is moving lower which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4758 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is falling sharply. Both are bearish signals.

The S&P chart is overwhelming bearish for Friday but is still holding above the 100 day moving average.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 2 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 3 2024 

For Friday the jobs report will be the deciding factor for the start of the day. However once those numbers are released at 8:30 the technical indicators are advising that the weakness over the past week is slowing. Earnings from Apple on Thursday after the close were better than expected and did not match the “bad news” reports prior to earnings being released. The stock should move higher today and bring the NASDAQ higher.

Friday should see stocks close higher unless the employment report is a surprise.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The main events this week are the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday followed by the April employment report on Friday.

Monday:

No reports of significance. This usually favors the bulls.

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index was expected to rise slightly to 6.7% from 6.6% but rose to 7.3% which helped send stocks lower.

10:00 Consumer confidence was expected to dip slightly to 103.5 from 104.7 but fell to 97 which also sent stocks lower.

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment is expected at 183,000 but was higher at 192,000.

10:00 Construction spending is expected to rise 0.3% but fell to -0.2%

10:00 ISM Manufacturing is expected to report 49.9% but came in at 49.2%

10:00 Job openings are estimated at 8.7 million but fell to 8.5 million.

2:00 FOMC interest rate decision left rates unchanged

2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference sent stocks higher initially and then lower

Intraday – auto sales

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 212,000 but came in at 208,000 almost the same as the prior week.

8:30 Trade deficit is expected at -69.5 billion but came in at =69.4 billion.

8:30 Productivity for the first quarter is expected at 0.5% but came in at 0.3%

8:30 Unit-labor costs are expected at 4.0% but rose to 4.7%

10:00 Factory orders for March are expected at 1.7% but came in at 1.6%

Friday:

8:30 unemployment report is expected at 240,000 with the rate steady at 3.8%

8:30 ISM services are expected to rise to 52.0%