Summary:
Friday Apr 6 2018 was a wild day with the morning looking like investors were going to be just fine. By the afternoon though interest rate hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent stocks lower followed by conflicting comments from Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin on the possibility of a trade way with China. Stocks fell again, breaking through 2600. Volume though was not huge on the break and by the close, indexes were back just above 2600.
Closing Statistics:
On April 6th (2018) the closing price for the S&P 500 was $2604.47. The security opened down, lost 58.37 points, falling 2.19%.
The closing price for the NASDAQ Composite was $6915.11. The security opened lower, fell 161.44 points and lost 2.28%.
The closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was $23932.76. The index opened lower, lost 572.46 points and fell 2.34%.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close:
The chart overall is once again bearish.
The index struggled to hold the 2600 valuation after dipping below it. It closed just off the highs and down at the 200 day moving average. That should get a bounce in the early morning as the index tries to move off the 200 day moving average.
The closing candlestick was strongly bearish.
All the indexes except for the 200 are falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is also now falling. The 21 day is still moving toward the 100 day but has not fallen below it. The 50 day is leading the market and it continues to fall.
The 200 day is no longer climbing which is bearish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Apr 6 2018
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative and rising despite the plunge on Friday.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on March 20. That sell signal was slightly stronger at the close on Friday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal still in place.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is falling.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. The rate of change is negative and falling.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
2745 to 2750 was light support
2710 was light support.
2700 was good support.
2675 was light support.
2650 was light support and 2620 was also light support.
2600 is good support.
There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction on Feb 9.
The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Apr 9 2018
For Monday Apr 9 the SPX is still holding a bit of strength despite the plunge on Friday. We should expect lots of volatility again on Monday.
Technical indicators have actually not lost a lot of strength which would suggest stocks have buyers, at the 2600 level.
The Slow Stochastic still has an up signal in place for Monday.
The chart though is very bearish. Monday looks like we could see stocks try to climb after a lower open. That could last 20 minutes to half an hour and then I would expect stocks to fall back. The afternoon looks sideways with a bias lower. Late afternoon could see stocks try to climb again and present us with a higher close. That of course will change if there are more comments and talk about China, tariffs and interest rate increases on Monday.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 – Bounce But Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 22 2024 – No Change – Deeply Oversold Bounce Possible
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 19 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Likely – Higher Close
