On Thursday it was Boeing Stock that pushed the Dow to a record close. Meanwhile higher than expected inflation numbers shook many investors who decided that maybe the Fed might just raise rates in September, after all. We will know on Sep 20. Whereas the general consensus had fallen to less than 30% for a chance of a September or October rate hike, that number jumped today to over 55% as the CPI number rose to its biggest gain in seven months in August. Meanwhile the decline in Apple Stock continued on Thursday which drove the NASDAQ to a loss on the day.
S&P 500 Index Close
The S&P index ended down 2.75 to 2495.62
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 45.30 at 22,203.48
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed down 31.10 to 6429.08
Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 14 2017
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P on Thursday closed inside the Upper Bollinger Band for a second day and left behind a bearish candlestick for Friday.
The 21 and 50 day moving averages are running neck and neck while the market tries to decide whether to move higher, which should break the 21 day above the 50 day, or lower, which will send the 21 day below the 50 day for a major sell signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb higher.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive and moving lower.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Aug 31. The buy signal was unchanged on Thursday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising into overbought signals.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Thursday and is very overbought.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is higher and into overbought readings. It is starting to dip slightly.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive but moving sideways. Prices may change shortly.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. There is also light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Sep 15 2017
For Friday, stocks might start the day weaker thanks to another missile from North Korea being sent over Japan. However futures this evening were quite negative at the outset of the news, but then rose again to stay only slightly negative. Overall unless something more dramatic happens, the news from North Korea will most likely be ignored by the market.
The Dow is sitting at new highs and the S&P and NASDAQ are near all-time highs. The S&P is just a few points away from 2500 and may try to break to it or even above it on Friday later in the day. That may not hold on Friday but overall the outlook still looks positive for the end of the day. If the market instead decides to sell lower on Friday by the close, we should still see the market try to move higher at the start of next week. Overall the outlook for Friday is for weakness to continue, but the underlying bias is still up.
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