Stock Market Outlook for Fri Oct 18 2019 – Choppy With A Bias Higher

Stock Market Outlook - choppy bias higher

Thursday saw the confirmed up signal from MACD gain strength. It also saw the index stuck at the 3000 level.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Oct 17 2019 

The SPX chart is bullish but it is at a point where it has been before. In the chart below you can see where I have marked the July and September push to 3000 both of which failed (marked prior). With the index once more back at 3000, the closing candlestick is bullish, but it also is often a common reversal of a trend. That means next week, we could see stocks dip back. The dip won’t be an end to the rally but may continue to solidify 3000 as a band of strong resistance. We will know more next week.

For now, all the major moving averages are now climbing. This includes the 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.

The Bollinger Bands are now moving parallel indicating no real change in direction is expected/

The two buy signals from September are still in place.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Oct 17 2019


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive but trending more sideways than up or down.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up  signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was stronger today.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving sideways which indicates no change is expected for Friday.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is light support

2950 was light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Oct 18 2019 

For Friday Oct 18, the market enters Triple Witching which almost always sees much higher volumes and often higher volatility.

A choppy day is expected and the indexes are not showing a strong day is expected for Friday. If anything, most are pointing to a sideways day.

That means we should watch for dips, which still are opportunities to setup trades and then sell out in spikes higher during the day. A close at or just above 3000 is expected for Friday.


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