For the second time the outlook remains mixed as on Tuesday investors got two reports that was a bit concerning. The Case-Shiller home price index rose to 3.9% and perhaps more important, consumer confidence rose to 102 which indicated consumers remain strongly focused on consumption. With oil prices down significantly the consumer is continuing to be the strongest force in the economy.
The SPX rose just 4 points to close at 4554 which left the index still holding the 4550 support level.
The NASDAQ gained 40 points to close at 14,281.
The consumer confidence numbers fly in the face of the bears and those who are looking for a recession at the start of next year.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Nov 28 2023 to see what to expect for Wed Nov 29 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 28 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways for a five straight trading day.
The closing candlestick signals a potential higher day on Wednesday but a lot may depend on the Fed’s Beige Book which is released at 2:00 PM.
The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.
The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is now bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.
The S&P chart is more mixed following 5 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
|Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
|MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Tue Nov 28 2023 the signal up lost more strength. It will lose even more quickly if there is not an up day soon.
|Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is not overbought.
|Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is very overbought.
|Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.
|Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Wednesday we should see a bigger move either up or down.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels
|4600 is resistance
|4590 is resistance
|4575 is resistance
|4565 is resistance
|4550 is resistance
|4535 is resistance
|4520 is resistance
|4500 is support
|4475 is support
|4450 is support
|4440 is support
|4425 is support
|4400 is support
|4375 is support
|4350 is support
|4325 is support
|4300 is support
|4275 is light support
|4250 is light support
|4235 is light support
|4225 is support
|4200 is good support
|4185 is support
|4175 is support
|4150 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 29 2023
For Wednesday the signals remain mixed although there are some signals that are beginning to show stress after 5 straight days of sideways trading. The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence which first signaled the up move is losing strength quickly. As well the Bollinger Bands could be moving into a new squeeze by the end of the week which could move stocks lower unless buyers start pushing stocks higher.
Aside from the mixed signals, the Fed’s Beige Book could possibly spark another move higher but consumer confidence and the home price index signaled that the economy is not slowing which could worry the Fed.
Overall the outlook remains very mixed but the bias remains higher for Wednesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.
10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9% and met those estimates.
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. Instead consumer confidence showed strength at 102.
8:30 GDP (revised) is estimated at 5% for the quarter
2:00 Fed Beige Book is released