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Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 29 2023 – Still Mixed Outlook Possible Higher Close

Nov 29, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Prior Trading Day Summary:

For the second time the outlook remains mixed as on Tuesday investors got two reports that was a bit concerning. The Case-Shiller home price index rose to 3.9% and perhaps more important, consumer confidence rose to 102 which indicated consumers remain strongly focused on consumption. With oil prices down significantly the consumer is continuing to be the strongest force in the economy.

The SPX rose just 4 points to close at 4554 which left the index still holding the 4550 support level.

The NASDAQ gained 40 points to close at 14,281.

The consumer confidence numbers fly in the face of the bears and those who are looking for a recession at the start of next year.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Nov 28 2023 to see what to expect for Wed Nov 29 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 28 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways for a five straight trading day.

The closing candlestick signals a potential higher day on Wednesday but a lot may depend on the Fed’s Beige Book which is released at 2:00 PM.

The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is now bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.

The S&P chart is more mixed following 5 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 28 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Tue Nov 28 2023 the signal up lost more strength. It will lose even more quickly if there is not an up day soon.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is not overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Wednesday we should see a bigger move either up or down.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4590 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4565 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4535 is resistance
4520 is resistance
4500 is support
4475 is support
4450 is support
4440 is support
4425 is support
4400 is support
4375 is support
4350 is support
4325 is support
4300 is support
4275 is light support
4250 is light support
4235 is light support
4225 is support
4200 is good support
4185 is support
4175 is support
4150 is good support


Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 29 2023 

For Wednesday the signals remain mixed although there are some signals that are beginning to show stress after 5 straight days of sideways trading. The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence which first signaled the up move is losing strength quickly. As well the Bollinger Bands could be moving into a new squeeze by the end of the week which could move stocks lower unless buyers start pushing stocks higher.

Aside from the mixed signals, the Fed’s Beige Book could possibly spark another move higher but consumer confidence and the home price index signaled that the economy is not slowing which could worry the Fed.

Overall the outlook remains very mixed but the bias remains higher for Wednesday.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.

Monday:

10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9% and met those estimates.

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. Instead consumer confidence showed strength at 102.

Wednesday:

8:30 GDP (revised) is estimated at 5% for the quarter

2:00 Fed Beige Book is released






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