Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 19 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks tried to bounce at the open, failed and continued to sell lower.

The S&P lost 43 points to close at 5544 while the NASDAQ fell 125 points to close at 17,871.

For the S&P 22% of all volume was still buying while 35% of all volume on the NASDAQ was being traded higher. Normally if the downturn is to become a lot stronger, advancing volume is not this high, especially on the second day of a sell-off.

On Thursday the index closed at the 21 day moving average. Usually investors can expect another bounce attempt.

Let review the technical indicators from Thu Jul 18 2024 to see if selling will continue Fri Jul 19 2024 or a second bounce commence.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 18 2024

The index closed at the 21 day moving average but well below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish but often signals a bounce.

The closing candlestick indicates the index is oversold after two strong sell-off days and should bounce but more downside is likely.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5023 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5267.

The Lower Bollinger Band fell below the 50 day moving average Wednesday which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is bearish.

The S&P chart is more bearish short-term than bullish. There are more than one signal advising stocks still have room to fall.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 18 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 19 2024 

For Friday expect another bounce attempt but a lower close is still likely.

The second day of the sell-off saw the number of stocks dipping lower, increase but for many the losses were slight and looked more like profit-taking than a major downturn.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to be unchanged at -6.0

12:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks.

Tuesday:

8:30 Retail sales rose to 0.0% basically flat after being at 0.3% prior.

8:30 Retail sales minus autos was expected to rise to 0.1% but rose to 0.4%

8:30 Import price index was expeced to rise to -0.2% from -0.4% but came in at 0.2% stronger than expected

10:00 Business inventories came in at 0.5% as expected

10:00 Home builder confidence fell to 42

Wednesday:

8:30 Housing starts were better than expected coming in at 1.25 million

8:30 Building permits also were better than expected coming in at 1.45 million

9:15 Industrial production was expected to fall to 0.3% but instead fell to 0.6%

9:15 Capacity utilization was estimated to be 78.5% but rose slightly to 78.8%

2:00 Fed’s latest Beige Book

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were estimated at 229,000 but came in at 243,000

10:00 Leading economic indicators were expected to rise to -0.3% but rose to -0.2%

Friday:

There are no events