Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday tech stocks were hit with strong selling as investors decided it was time to take profits ahead of uncertainty over the upcoming election and the possibility of more tariffs and restrictions on chips with China.
The S&P plunged 79 points to end the day at 5588. The NASDAQ collapsed 512 points to end the day at 17,996.
Selling was steady in most tech names throughout the day and the index closed at the lows. Interestingly the Dow Jones index closed higher by 243 points to end that day at 41,198. Intraday the index broke through 42,000 for the first time.
Let review the technical indicators from Wed Jul 17 2024 to see if selling will continue Thu Jul 18 2024 or a bounce commence.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 17 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average but well below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick indicates the index is oversold and should bounce but more downside is still ahead.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5018 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5261.
The Lower Bollinger Band fell below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is climbing but turned sideways on Wednesday which is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bearish short-term than bullish. There are more than one signal advising stocks still have room to fall.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 17 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday July 5. On Wed Jul 17 2024 the up signal was almost turned into a down signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Thursday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5675 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5520 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 18 2024
For Thursday the technical signals are advising that a bounce is likely but it will not hold. More downside will occur and today will close lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to be unchanged at -6.0
12:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks.
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales rose to 0.0% basically flat after being at 0.3% prior.
8:30 Retail sales minus autos was expected to rise to 0.1% but rose to 0.4%
8:30 Import price index was expeced to rise to -0.2% from -0.4% but came in at 0.2% stronger than expected
10:00 Business inventories came in at 0.5% as expected
10:00 Home builder confidence fell to 42
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts were better than expected coming in at 1.25 million
8:30 Building permits also were better than expected coming in at 1.45 million
9:15 Industrial production was expected to fall to 0.3% but instead fell to 0.6%
9:15 Capacity utilization was estimated to be 78.5% but rose slightly to 78.8%
2:00 Fed’s latest Beige Book
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 229,000
10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to rise to -0.3%