Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 25 2024 – Oversold Bounce – Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday investors decided to take profits in many stocks that had risen over the past several months. Alphabet earnings seemed to be a catalyst to the downside starting from the outset of trading. There was no panic selling. Instead selling remained steady as stocks fell with much of the worse damage in tech names that had large profits over the past few months. PMI manufacturing came is lower than expected which added to the selling pressure.

The SPX lost 128 points ending at 5427, marking the worse day since September 13 2022 when the SPX lost 177 points. For the week the SPX is down 77 points.

The NASDAQ fell 654 points ending the day at 17342. For the week the NASDAQ is down 384 points.

Let review the closing technical indicators from Wed Jul 24 2024 to see what the signals advise to expect on Thu Jul 25 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 24 2024

The index closed at the 50 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish and signals that further downside is likely. The index reached the 50 day moving average on Wednesday.

The closing candlestick signals oversold with steady selling through the day on Wednesday. Normally a bounce is expected with the index falling to the 50 day moving average in a single day.

The 21 day moving average is turning sideways which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5042 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5286.

The Lower Bollinger Band fell is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is bearish.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish and while the signal is oversold, any bounce at present won’t hold. More selling is ahead.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 24 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 25 2024 

The SPX closed at the low after the worse day in two years. The technical indicators are advising the index is oversold. That means a bounce should be expected but a lower close is likely on Thursday.

More downside should be expected before this pullback ends. The Index will break below the 50 day moving average and test the 100 and probably 200 day moving average first.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

10:00 Existing home sales weree expected to fall to 3.95 million but fell to 3.89 million, lower than estimated

Wednesday:

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods came in at -$96.8 billion

8:30 Advanced retail inventories met estimates of 0.7%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories came in lower than estimated at 0.2%

9:45 S&P flash services PMI was estimated to be 55.0 but came in at 56.0

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was estimated to be 51.5 but came in lower at 49.5

10:00 New home sales was expected to rise to 640,000 but fell to 617,000

Thursday:

8:30 GDP is expected to be 2.1%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be lower at 235,000

8:30 Durable goods orders are expected to rise to 0.3%