Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 26 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt – Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday investors attempt a bounce but sellers continued to unload many of the stocks that had done so well heading into June and early July. Sellers are using the bounces to sell into. Some stocks though are falling a bit too low, such as NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) on Thursday which almost broke below $106 which marked a 24% decline from its 52 week high. With many stocks oversold and selling volume started to slow, another bounce attempt appears likely for Friday if the PCE numbers come in as anticipated and don’t spook investors.

The SPX lost 28 points ending at 5399.

The NASDAQ fell 160 points ending the day at 117,181. For the week the NASDAQ is down 545 points.

Let review the closing technical indicators from Thu Jul 25 2024 to see what the signals advise to expect on Fri Jul 26 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 25 2024

The index closed just below the 50 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish but also signals a second bounce attempt is likely.

The closing candlestick signals oversold and the long shadow you can see on the candlestick almost always signals a bounce for the following day.

The 21 day moving average is turning lowers which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5046 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5288.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals a bounce likely.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish but is signaling a bounce is probable for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 24 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 26 2024 

You can see in the support and resistance table that the SPX is now deep into support levels. It fell through 5465, 5450, 5425 and closed at 5400. All 4 are support levels which will be recovered in a bounce.

Part of Thursday’s selling was caused by the GDP number which came in hotter than expected at 2.8%, double the prior reading which was 1.4%. Many investors worried that the number could keep the Fed on hold into September for an interest rate cut.

All the technical indicators are signaling oversold. Almost always investors can expect a bounce when all the indicators are oversold.

The bounce attempts on Thursday didn’t hold the market higher but they did slow the selling. That helps to setup Friday for a bounce.

As long as the PCE numbers on Friday do not surprise and spook investors, the signals are advising that Friday will see a bounce and a higher close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

10:00 Existing home sales weree expected to fall to 3.95 million but fell to 3.89 million, lower than estimated

Wednesday:

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods came in at -$96.8 billion

8:30 Advanced retail inventories met estimates of 0.7%

8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories came in lower than estimated at 0.2%

9:45 S&P flash services PMI was estimated to be 55.0 but came in at 56.0

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was estimated to be 51.5 but came in lower at 49.5

10:00 New home sales was expected to rise to 640,000 but fell to 617,000

Thursday:

8:30 GDP ws expected to be 2.1% but came i n at 2.8%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in as expected at 235,000

8:30 Durable goods orders were expected to rise to 0.3% but rose to 0.5%

Friday:

8:30 Personal Income is expected to slip to 0.4%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to rise to 0.3%

8:30 PCE Index is expected to rise to 0.1%

8:30 PCE year  over year is expected to dip to 2.5%

8:30 Core PCE Index is expected to rise 0.2%

Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.6%

10:00 Consumer Sentiment for July is expected to be 66