Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 10 2019 – Morning Dip But An Up Bias

Stock Market Outlook - Morning Dip But Bias Up

Stocks on Tuesday opened lower but then spent the day recovering and finally in the final 45 minutes, they broke higher, trying to close above 2980. Indexes are well positioned for the upcoming testimony of Fed Chair Powell over the next 2 days.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Jul 9 2019 

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and above all the major moving averages.  The closing candlestick was neutral for Wednesday. The Bollinger Bands are both moving higher with the Lower Bollinger Band now above the 100 day moving average. Often this indicates that the next move will be higher for the index.

The buy signal from June 28 with the 21 day moving above the 50 day, is still gaining strength.

The 200 day moving average is moving higher above the 2800 level which is bullish.

The chart is quite bullish for Wednesday.


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday June 6. The up signal was weaker on Tuesday.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and moving sideways, unchanged.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a down signal in place for Wednesday and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving sideways.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating lower prices lie ahead.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is better support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jul 10 2019 

For Wednesday investors are waiting for word from Fed Chair Powell on the highly anticipated rate cut.

Any slip up in comments will send stocks lower for a short dip but any news of an interest rate cut will send stocks higher.

Wednesday should end higher for the indexes.

A dip in the morning is expected but then the indexes will push higher and close positive on the day.


 

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