Prior Trading Day Summary
On Monday Aug 31 2026 markets moved lower from the open and were unable to rally. The close was weaker despite a rise in trading volumes.
The SPX fell 25 points to close at 7686 on volume of 5.5 billion a rise of 1.1 billion shares traded. By the close 63% of stocks were falling. For August though the SPX had another winning month as it rose 197 points for a 2.6% gain.
The NASDAQ lost just 31 points to end the day at 26370. Volume was 8.0 billion with 57% of all stocks declining by the close. For August the NASDAQ gained 997 points for a 3.9% rise in the month.
Let’s review the SPX closing technical indicators from Mon Aug 31 2026 to see what they predict for the first trading day of September.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Aug 31 2026
The index ended the day below the Upper Bollinger Band and below the 21 day moving average. This is bearish. The last time the SPX was below the 21 days was July 30.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday but still suggests a bounce could happen.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7711. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7567. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7424. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7164. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day moving average and the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. Signals are advising stocks are entering a sharp Bollinger Bands Squeeze with a good chance stocks will fall.
The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for the first trading day of September.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 31 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an down signal on Thu Aug 20 2026. On Mon Aug 31 2026 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place which is bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling which is bearish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling and signaling that Tuesday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7800 is resistance |
| 7780 is resistance |
| 7750 is resistance |
| 7700 is resistance |
| 7650 is resistance |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is support |
| 7450 is support |
| 7425 is support |
| 7400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 1 2026
TSeptember has a history of choppy trading, turmoil and surprises to the downside. For the start of September, it is disappointing to see a sharp Bollinger Bands Squeeze. At present signals are advising that stocks will move lower out of this latest squeeze.
For Tuesday I expect a choppy day of trading and a lower close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
9:45 Manufacturing PMI for Aug is estimated to slip to 53.5 from 53.9 prior
10:00 ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI is estimated to fall to 55.3 from 55.6 prior
10: Construction spending for July is expected to come in at 0%
10:00 Job openings and Labor turnover for July is expected to slip to 7.3 million from 7.4 million prior
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP National Employment Report for August is estimated to rise to 47,000 from 44,000 prior
10:00 Factory orders for July are estimated to rise to 0.7% from -0.3% prior
2:00 Fed Beige Book