Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 28 2023 – Mixed Outlook – Possible Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Monday being the first day back from the long Thanksgiving weekend, many investors were not in attendance and volumes on the indexes were low.

The SPX fell slightly by almost 9 points to close at support at 4550.

The NASDAQ lost just shy of 10 points, closing at 14241.

On Tuesday we get consumer confidence numbers. Despite bearish analysis by many, numbers from the Black Friday weekend defied the bears and showed the consumer was spending more than expected. This could be reflected in today’s consumer confidence numbers.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Nov 27 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Nov 28 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Nov 27 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways. The outlook is turning neutral.

The closing candlestick signals another a potential lower close on Tuesday along with a mixed outlook.

The 21 day moving average moved above the 50 day on Friday. This wiped out the first and last remaining down signal from back in August. There are now no down signals.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is now bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.

The S&P chart is more mixed following 3 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 27 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 28 2023 

For Tuesday there are more mixed signals as the index remains stalled for a third straight trading day. The closing technical indicators on Monday are warning investors to stay cautious but not to flee the markets yet. The move by the Bollinger Bands is a bit concerning and may be a warning that the next move in the market will be lower.

On Monday new home sales tumbled to 679,000 which was well below estimates of 725,000. That helped to keep stocks trending sideways on Monday.

Today investors get consumer confidence numbers and tomorrow the Fed Beige Book is released in the afternoon. Either of these could have an impact but for now the bias still rests with the bulls. Tuesday might end lower but there are still signals advising a move higher is still to come. The chance that it comes today however is unlikely. A flat to lower close is expected.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.

Monday:

10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9%

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. A number below 100 could hurt stocks today.