X
FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 28 2023 – Mixed Outlook – Possible Lower Close

Nov 28, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Monday being the first day back from the long Thanksgiving weekend, many investors were not in attendance and volumes on the indexes were low.

The SPX fell slightly by almost 9 points to close at support at 4550.

The NASDAQ lost just shy of 10 points, closing at 14241.

On Tuesday we get consumer confidence numbers. Despite bearish analysis by many, numbers from the Black Friday weekend defied the bears and showed the consumer was spending more than expected. This could be reflected in today’s consumer confidence numbers.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Nov 27 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Nov 28 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Nov 27 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways. The outlook is turning neutral.

The closing candlestick signals another a potential lower close on Tuesday along with a mixed outlook.

The 21 day moving average moved above the 50 day on Friday. This wiped out the first and last remaining down signal from back in August. There are now no down signals.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is now bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze later this week.

The S&P chart is more mixed following 3 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 27 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Mon Nov 27 2023 the signal up lost some strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is still overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Tuesday will see a bigger move up or down.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4590 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4565 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4535 is resistance
4520 is resistance
4500 is support
4475 is support
4450 is support
4440 is support
4425 is support
4400 is support
4375 is support
4350 is support
4325 is support
4300 is support
4275 is light support
4250 is light support
4235 is light support
4225 is support
4200 is good support
4185 is support
4175 is support
4150 is good support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 28 2023 

For Tuesday there are more mixed signals as the index remains stalled for a third straight trading day. The closing technical indicators on Monday are warning investors to stay cautious but not to flee the markets yet. The move by the Bollinger Bands is a bit concerning and may be a warning that the next move in the market will be lower.

On Monday new home sales tumbled to 679,000 which was well below estimates of 725,000. That helped to keep stocks trending sideways on Monday.

Today investors get consumer confidence numbers and tomorrow the Fed Beige Book is released in the afternoon. Either of these could have an impact but for now the bias still rests with the bulls. Tuesday might end lower but there are still signals advising a move higher is still to come. The chance that it comes today however is unlikely. A flat to lower close is expected.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.

Monday:

10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9%

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. A number below 100 could hurt stocks today.






Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 16 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the week and the start of the shortened week, next week. There is also info regarding the President’s …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 16 2024 – Dips Likely -Still Bullish But Potential Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors continued to push stocks higher with the SPX rising 29 points to close at 5029. Trading volume was 4.2 billion shares, better than yesterday’s rally. New highs jumped to 217 stocks while new …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 15 2024 discuss the bounce in equities from Wednesday and what investors may see next for stocks. There are a large number of trades outlined including TQQQ, Apple Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 15 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned to buy back many of the same stocks they were dumping on Tuesday. By the close the SPX was up 47 points for a bounce of 69%. Volume slipped back to 3.9 …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 14 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 14 2024 discuss the sell-off from Tuesday and what I think will happen next. There are a large number of trades outlined including TQQQ, Twilio Stock (Two), Cisco Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 14 2024 – Bounce Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the CPI numbers came in hotter than expected and that was all it took for the overbought market to sell-off. As is typical, are stocks moved lower more sellers joined in and that lead …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 13 2024 discuss the outlook for stocks depending on the CPI numbers due out this morning before markets resume trading. There are a large number of trades outlined including …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 13 2024 – Sideway With Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks rose initially but again on low volume. Another new all-time high was made of 5048 before sellers stepped in and send the index down to 5021 for a loss of 5 points. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 12 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of the second week of February and Tuesday’s inflation report. There are a large number of trades outlined including Microsoft Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 12 2024 – Sideways With Slight Bias Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks opened higher, dipped in the morning but continued to hold a bullish bias. By the afternoon the SPX was pushing to 5030 before finally closing at 5026 marking the first close above 5000 …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 9 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 9 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the week. Trades outlined include ARM Stock (ARM), Pinterest Stock (PINS), PepsiCo Stock (PEP), Take Two Interactive Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 9 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday trading was choppy with the SPX stuck in a sideways pattern. Intraday the index touched 5000 but closed just below it at 4997. The NASDAQ gained 37 points and closed at 15793. Thursday saw …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 8 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 8 2024 discuss the outlook along with comments on a potential bull correction as the index moves above 5000. Trades outlined include ARM Stock (ARM), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 8 2024 – Overbought – Dips Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors were back buying stocks again and volumes improved, particularly in the S&P. The SPX made a new all-time intraday and closing high. The S&P gained 40 points and closed at 4995 and intraday …