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Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 30 2023 – Dips Likely with Possible Lower Close

Nov 29, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Dips Likely - Lower CLosePrior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday stocks tried to rally especially as bond yields dipped lower but the GDP number came in stronger than expected. That took away any chance of a rally for Wednesday. Many analysts indicated that any further signals that the economy was picking up the pace, would see the Fed raise rates further. All of this was too much for investors who took some profits but continued to hold out hope that the sideways action would break to the upside shortly.

The SPX rose fell 4 points to close at 4558 which left the index still holding the 4550 support level.

The NASDAQ lost 23 points to close at 14,258.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Nov 29 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Nov 30 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Nov 29 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways for a sixth straight trading day.

The closing candlestick signals a potential higher day on Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze by Friday or into next week.

The S&P chart is very mixed following 6 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls still need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Nov 29 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive. It is close to turning negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Wed Nov 29 2023 the signal up, lost more strength. It will lose even more quickly if there is not an up day soon.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative. It is not overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling no large swings are expected intraday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4590 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4565 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4535 is resistance
4520 is resistance
4500 is support
4475 is support
4450 is support
4440 is support
4425 is support
4400 is support
4375 is support
4350 is support
4325 is support
4300 is support
4275 is light support
4250 is light support


Stock Market Outlook for Thu Nov 30 2023 

For Thursday the signals are still mixed but the bias is shifting to the bears. There are more technical indicators pointing lower for stocks rather than those pointing higher.

The chance of dips on Thursday are high and while they are still opportunities to place trades, we need to see more bulls participating in order for stocks to regain momentum to the upside.

Historically stocks have risen for the final trading day of November for almost 25 years. We could see history try to repeat itself on Thursday.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.

Monday:

10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9% and met those estimates.

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. Instead consumer confidence showed strength at 102.

Wednesday:

8:30 GDP (revised) is estimated at 5% for the quarter but came in at 5.2%

2:00 Fed Beige Book is released

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

8:30 Personal income

8:30 Personal spending

8:30 PCE Index

10:00 Pending home sales.






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