Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday the CPI numbers came in on the low side of estimates which cheered investors. From the outset stocks climbed into new highs.
By the close, the SPX was above 5300, up 61 points to 5308 and definitely overbought.
The NASDAQ saw huge volume of 9 billion shares and rose 231 points to close at 16,742.
Let review the closing technical signals from Wed May 15 2024 to see what to expect on Thu May 16 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 15 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the 50 day and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is still below the 50 day moving average for a down signal but turning up. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4797 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and falling. This is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher. This is bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 15 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri May 3. The up signal gained more strength on Wed May 15 2024.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a potential change signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling that Thursday will be higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
| 5115 is support |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 16 2024
For Thursday, with the indexes at all-time highs, stocks will dip and trading will be choppy but the outlook remains strongly bullish.
The close on Thursday will be higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
There are a number of reports this week that will impact markets. The Producer Price Index on Tuesday and Consumer Price Index on Wednesday could move markets.
Monday:
There are no reports released today.
Tuesday:
8:30 Producer Price Index reports
10:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks
Wednesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index reports
8:30 Retail sales with and without autos
10:00 Home builder confidence index
10:00 Business inventories
Thursday:
Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 221,000
8:30 Housing Starts are expected to rise to 1.4 million
8:30 Building permits are expected to rise to 1.48 million
8:30 Import price index is expect to be 0.3%
9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated unchanged at 78.4%