Day’s Summary
On Wednesday the day’s selling was exaggerated by Fed Chair Powell’s comments on two further interest rate hikes likely this year. That sent stocks lower and he continues his testimony on Thursday in the Senate. In particular the semi-conductors fell deeper than expected as selling pressure increased, the more those stocks fell.
By the close of the day the S&P was down 23 points to 4365, matching Tuesday’s losses.
The NASDAQ fell 165 points to end the day at 13,502. Losses were higher on the NASDAQ thanks to the semi-conductors being sold off.
Let’s review the SPX closing technical indicators from Wed Jun 21 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Jun 22 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 21 2023
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is now bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday but also is often seen before the index spikes or bounces.
The 21, 50 an 100 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish, but the 200 day is slipping lower while the the Lower Bollinger Band is rising. This is bearish.
The S&P chart is reasonably bullish but there are signs of weakness in the chart.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 21 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday May 26. The up signal lost a lot of strength on Wednesday. The MACD histogram also shows weakness building.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and no longer overbought.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place. It is signaling overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is no longer signaling overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is resistance |
| 4340 is resistance |
| 4325 is resistance |
| 4310 is resistance |
| 4300 is resistance |
| 4290 is resistance |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4190 is support |
| 4180 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 22 2023
For Thursday the technical indicators are continuing to fall and point to a lower day again on Thursday. The closing candlestick however is often seen before a bounce after a day of selling. The Fed Chair continues to testify to the Senate and will likely continue in a very hawkish stance. That won’t help the bulls.
Although there are no solid down signals, the chart at the close showed a number of weak spots in the rally. A bounce is needed soon, if the rally is to continue. At present almost all signals are still bullish but that can change quickly should selling continue.
Housing starts on Tuesday came in at 1.63 million, far ahead of expectations of 1.39 million.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be lower at 256,000.
8:30 Current account for first quarter is expected to come in at -217.1 billion
10:00 Existing home sales
10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to Senate panel (Wednesday was House Panel)
10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to be slightly lower at -0.7%