Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 9 2021 – Weakness – Dips Likely

Wednesday saw lower volume being traded across all 3 indexes but all managed to end higher in what was a choppier day of trading.

The S&P rose 14 points to close at 4701. The NASDAQ rose 100 points to close at 15,786. The Dow Jones rose 35 points to close at 35,754.

After such a strong rally, a weaker day was expected but that weakness looks set to continue Thursday.

Let’s review Wednesday’s closing technical indicators to see what we should expect for Thu Dec 9 2021.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Dec 8 2021 

The candlestick on Wednesday closed above the 21 day moving average, which is bullish. However the closing candlestick also points to weakness for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is continuing to fall which is bearish. The other remaining major moving averages, namely the 50, 100 and 200 day are still climbing. This is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is over. The Lower Bollinger Band is trending sideways as is the Lower Bollinger Band. This is bearish for the index.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Dec 8 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is unchanged but remained positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wed Nov 17 2021 . On Wednesday the down signal weakened considerably. As well, the histogram is showing a rise coming shortly.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal for Thursday.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and nearing overbought readings.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising further. It has not yet confirmed that the next move will be up for the S&P.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4725 is resistance

4700 is resistance

4655 is light support.

4600 is good support

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Dec 9 2021 

On Wednesday the S&P managed to push through resistance to reach 4700. The selling last week and today’s recovery higher, turns the 4655 valuation from resistance to light support.

Volumes were lower throughout all the indexes as investors prepare for the latest inflation numbers to be released. That will impact stocks on Thursday.

Aside from that report, the outlook is still bullish for equities, although not as bullish as we saw earlier this week.

For Thursday, weakness will creep in and there will be dips. Some could be deeper than expected, however the chance of a higher close is still within reach on Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw investors continue the rally despite the PCE number showing far more weakness than expected. The rally on Friday though saw lower volumes which could ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024 discuss the outlook following the surprisingly low GDP and strong earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and others on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday's GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024 discuss the expected sell-off and weakness after the recent bounce in equities. There are a large number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw the rally stall. With the rally stalling investors took profits which weighed on stocks. The close saw the SPX up just 1 point at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024 discuss the second bounce on Tuesday and the outlook for the remainder of the week. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024 discuss the bounce on Monday. There are trade ideas on a wide number of stocks including Nucor ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 – Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the long awaited bounce from the recent selling and market breadth was bullish. The SPX rose 43 points recovering all of Friday's loss to ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of the fourth week of April. There are also comments on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 22 2024 – No Change – Deeply Oversold Bounce Possible

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw stocks open flat and try to climb within the first 15 minutes. When that failed the selling continued. The early afternoon saw a rally ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024 discuss the outlook for for a potential bounce that ends the day with the indexes positive. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 19 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Likely – Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw another morning bounce attempt but no follow through. However the SPX did not break below 5000 and managed to close at 5011 although minutes ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday and a possible bounce or a move lower. There are trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 18 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw a bounce attempt at the open which managed to reach 5078 before selling once again pushed stocks lower. By 12:45 stocks looks almost ready ....... Read More