Prior Trading Day Summary:
Prior Trading Day Summary:On Wed Apr 16 2025 stocks fell back lead by NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) which declined 392 million shares traded, well above average. The stock lost 6.87% to end the day at $104.40. With confidence shaken after just a few days of rallying higher, investors will be ready to sell most stocks lower on Thursday.
The SPX ended the day down 121 points to 5275. The NASDAQ ended the day down 516 points to 16,307.
Volumes on both indexes were heavily slanted to the downside and the majority of stocks were falling steeply.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wed Apr 16 2025 to see what they predict for Thu Apr 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 16 2025
The index closed below the 200 day moving average again and below Wednesday’s (Feb 9) high which is bearish.
The closing candlestick has two shadow which indicates another bearish bounce attempt could occur on Wednesday, probably in the morning, if there is a bounce. The outlook is negative however.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5482. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5721 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issues a 4th down signal on the SPX.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5728 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5658 which is bearish.
All the moving averages are continuing their decline and a new fourth down signal was generated on Tuesday.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is also falling which is bearish.
For Thursday the SPX chart is very bearish and indicates any bounce at present will fail.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 16 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Apr 3 2025. On Tue Apr 15 2025 a new but unconfirmed up signal was issued. Today the up signal lost strength and was not confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply and negative. It is not oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an very weak signal in place and looks ready to turn lower probably as early as today.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and not oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling a lower close for Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 17 2025
For Thursday the signals are showing a good chance for a rebound effort but any rally at this point, will fail. The market needs more time to regain strength and bring in more investors.
For today the index is clearly signaling another poor day for Thursday ahead of the long Easter weekend.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
8:30 Import price index fell to 0.1% from 0.4% prior
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey rose to -8.1 from -20.0 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 US Retail sales are estimated to rise 1.2% from 0.2% prior
8:30 Retail sales minus autos is expected to be flat at 0.3%
9:15 Industrial production is expected to fall to -0.1% from 0.7% prior
9:15 Capacity utilization is expected to fall to 77.9% from 78.2%
10:00 Business inventories are expected to be unchanged at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated to fall to 37 from 39
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise slightly to 225,000 from 223,000
8:30 Housing starts came in lower at 1.41 million
8:30 Building permits are estimated to come in at 1.44 million