Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Jun 4 2025 stocks opened lower as ADP numbers came in far below estimates which spooked investors. By the close, investors had regained Tuesday’s close.
The SPX closed unchanged at 5971 on 4.8 billion shares traded. There were 83 new highs and just 8 new lows. 68% of all stocks were advancing.
The NASDAQ closed up 61 points to 19460. Volume was 7.9 billion shares traded with 65% of the volume trading higher by the close.
With May non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday, lets review the technical indicators from the close on Wed Jun 4 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu Jun 5 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 4 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bearish with the closing shadow indicating dips are likely today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5855 which is bullish. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April SPX collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5620 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5741 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5679 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 50 day moving average on Wednesday which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is also moving higher which is bullish.
For Thu Jun 5 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but again the closing candlestick indicates dips are likely on Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 4 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive..
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was still weak on Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and nearing overbought readings.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal issideways signaling not much change is expected today.. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 5 2025
On Wednesday another up signal was generated when the Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 50 day moving average. Meanwhile all the technical indicators are a bit mixed but the strength still rests with the bulls.
Wednesday’s ADP number came in at 37,000 well below the estimates of 110,000. Remember though that the ADP numbers have often been wrong and not a very good predictor for markets. This is why as the day wore on, investors shook off the initial surprise and were back buying stock in the afternoon. Also on Wednesday the Fed’s Beige Book provided no market moving surprises, which is good for the bulls.
Thursday will see dips, including at or near the open. The day is expected to end higher ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report from May.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than estimated at 52.0
10:00 ISM Manufacturing met estimates at 48.5%
10:00 Construction spending fell more than estimated, down -0.4%
During the day auto sales are to be announced. Estimates are for 17.0 to 17.3 million autos to have been sold
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders were lower than estimated at -3.7%
10:00 Job openings stunned economists as they rose to 7.4 million, higher than estimated
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment came in at 37,000 well below estimates of 110,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI was higher than expected at 53.7
10:00 ISM services fell below estimates coming in at 49.9%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book presented no market moving comments
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is estimated at 236,000, slightly below the 240,000 prior
8:30 Trade deficit is estimated to -$63.3 billion
8:30 Productivity is estimated unchanged at -0.8%