Prior Trading Day Summary:
Stocks encountered some selling on the final day of trading in May which historically is common. The S&P ended the day down just half a point at 5911. Volume was higher by 2 billion shares with 55% of all stocks on the index falling. For the week, the S&P was up 108 points ending the month of May with a impressive rally of 6.9%.
The NASDAQ was down a modest 62 points to 19113 on 9.8 billion shares traded. 57% of stocks on the index were lower on Friday. For the month of May the index was up 1813 points for an equally impressive gain of 10.4%.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Fri May 30 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Jun 2 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri May 30 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. For the past 3 trading days the index was moving sideways rather than up or down.
The closing candlestick is bearish with a long shadow which usually signals a weak day for Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5810 which is bullish. At the close on Friday Mar 23, the 21 day moved further above the 100 day. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5605 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5727 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5671 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
For Mon Jun 2 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but Friday’s closing candlestick is signaling weakness to start June..
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 30 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Fri May 30 2025 the down signal remained unconfirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place but is ready to issue a down signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is neutral.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5785 is resistance |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 2 2025
Historically the first day of June has been poor for stocks. Usually much of the month is poor with only the final week seeing rallies. The technical indicators to start the week are definitely in agreement as they are either weak or falling.
For Monday, expect further weakness which started on Friday, to continue today. The close will be lower for both indexes.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.3
10:00 ISM Manufacturing is estimated to slip slightly to 48.5% from 48.7%
10:00 Construction spending is estimated to rise to 0.2% from -0.5% prior
During the day auto sales are to be announced. Estimates are for 17.0 to 17.3 million autos to have been sold