Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thu Jun 5 2025 stocks were primarily under selling pressure after coming within a point of reaching 6000 over the lunch hour. Arguments between President Trump and Elon Musk took center stage, holding investors focus which resulted in a give back and a close at 5939 for a loss of 31 points. Volume was higher by 400 million shares over Wednesday’s coming in at 5.2 billion. 49% of stocks were rising by the close of trading.
The NASDAQ lost 162 points to close at 19,298.45. Volume jumped 1.1 billion shares to 9 billion shares traded. By the close, 58% of all stocks were falling.
For the start of Friday, investors will be focused on the May Non-Farm Payroll Numbers due out at 8:30. After the initial move by the market, the technical indicators will hold more sway on market direction.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Thu Jun 5 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri Jun 6 2025, as we end the first week of June trading.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jun 5 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bearish although market direction at the open will depend on the May job numbers.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5871 which is bullish. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April SPX collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5624 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5745 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5682 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 50 day moving average on Wednesday which is bullish. It is now ready to move above the 200 day which will be bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present.
For Fri Jun 6 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but there are warning signs such as the closing candlestick and the Upper Bollinger Band that advise caution.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jun 5 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive..
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was stronger on Thursday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Friday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jun 6 2025
The morning open will be all about the May job numbers. Once the initial move is done, probably around 10:00 or 10:30, the technical indicators will have more effect and they are mixed. The MACD technical indicator has a down signal that gained some strength on Thursday. That could pose an issue for the bulls on Friday, especially if the jobs numbers are weaker than expected. If the Trump-Musk war of words continues on Friday there is a good chance any rally could be cut short.
The expectation is for the day to be choppy with some dips but a chance for a positive close to end the week higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than estimated at 52.0
10:00 ISM Manufacturing met estimates at 48.5%
10:00 Construction spending fell more than estimated, down -0.4%
During the day auto sales are to be announced. Estimates are for 17.0 to 17.3 million autos to have been sold
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders were lower than estimated at -3.7%
10:00 Job openings stunned economists as they rose to 7.4 million, higher than estimated
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment came in at 37,000 well below estimates of 110,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI was higher than expected at 53.7
10:00 ISM services fell below estimates coming in at 49.9%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book presented no market moving comments
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims we higher than estimated at 247,000
8:30 Trade deficit was well beyond estimates, coming in at a positive $61.6 billion
8:30 Productivity was lower than estimated at -1.5%
Friday:
8:30 May Non-Farm Payroll Numbers are estimated to drop to 125000 from 177000 prior
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated unchanged at 4.2%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated to rise 0.3% from 0.2% prior
8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are estimated to slip to 3.7% from 3.8% prior
3:00 Consumer credit is estimated to dip to $9.0 billion from $10.2 billion prior