Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Jun 3 2025 stocks opened lower and spent the day rallying to once again end positive. The SPX rose 34 points to close at 5970. Volume jumped to 5.1 billion and new highs came in at 81 versus 33 new lows. 69% of all volume was trading higher on Tuesday. The index may try to challenge 6000 on Wednesday or Thursday.
The NASDAQ rose 156 points to close at 19399. Volume also rose 400 million shares and traded 8.3 billion shares. 71% of the volume was trading higher. This is the highest up volume since May 27. 66% of all stocks were rising by the close.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Tue Jun 3 2025 to see what we should expect for Wed Jun 4 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jun 3 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. Tuesday’s higher close, as seen in the chart below, was the first close that may start to break the sideways trend the SPX has been in.
The closing candlestick is bullish but with a short shadow which signals a dip or even a slightly negative close may occur on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5840 which is bullish. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April SPX collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5616 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5736 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5676 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is also moving higher which is bullish.
For Wed Jun 4 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish although the closing candlestick is warning there will be a dip on Wednesday. The dip though will be an opportunity to setup trades as the trend remains higher.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 3 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive..
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was still weak on Tuesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and nearing overbought readings.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jun 4 2025
To start the day on Wednesday there are two new support levels. The 5785 and 5800 valuations are moved from resistance to support. Meanwhile there are two new resistance levels as the SPX approaches 6000. They are the 6015 and 6025 valuations that could slow or be retested by any move above 6000, which is expected this week.
Meanwhile the technical indicators are presenting a mixed outlook for Wednesday with some of the indicators switching back to rising and others continuing to move lower which is a cautionary signal. This cautionary signal is common as the market moves into overbought levels. The MACD technical indicator remained negative at the close on Tuesday but the strength of the down signal is not growing. This makes the down signal from Friday May 30 suspect that it will revert back to an up signal shortly.
On Tuesday the job openings number stunned economists as it came in at 7.4 million, higher than the prior 7.2 million. As well, revenue at Dollar General Stock (DG) showed the consumer is continuing to spend. The economic numbers on Tuesday defied the economists who are calling for a further weakening of the economy and an eventual recession this year.
For Wed Jun 4 2025, the outlook is mixed but the bias is still bullish which signals a better chance for another higher close, even if there is a dip intraday on Wednesday. At 2:00 investors get the latest Fed Beige Book which is probably going to continue to show the Fed has no desire to reduce interest rates. I think the Beige Book will be a non-market moving event on Wednesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than estimated at 52.0
10:00 ISM Manufacturing met estimates at 48.5%
10:00 Construction spending fell more than estimated, down -0.4%
During the day auto sales are to be announced. Estimates are for 17.0 to 17.3 million autos to have been sold
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders were lower than estimated at -3.7%
10:00 Job openings stunned economists as they rose to 7.4 million, higher than estimated
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected to jump to 110,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated unchanged at 52.3
10:00 ISM services is estimated at 52.1%, up from 51.6% prior
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book is not expected to present anything market moving