Prior Trading Day Summary:
Stocks had a choppy session on Thursday but managed a gain into the close. The SPX was up 23 points to 5912 on 4.6 billion shares traded. By the close,66% of stocks on New York were rising. For the week, the S&P is up 100 points.
The NASDAQ rose 75 points to close at 19175. Volume was higher than yesterday, at 11.1 billion shares traded as many investors moved into tech names like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) following their earnings on Wednesday. By the close 58% of all stocks were rising.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Thu May 29 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri May 30 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 29 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. It closed slightly higher as is evident in the chart below.
The closing candlestick is still bullish but with long shadows, dips and spikes should be expected. That means a choppy day is expected for Friday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5794 which is bullish. At the close on Friday Mar 23, the 21 day moved further above the 100 day. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5600 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5724 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5668 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
For Fri May 30 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but dips should be anticipated.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 29 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and barely positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Thu May 29 2025 a new down signal was issued but is unconfirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Friday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5785 is resistance |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 30 2025
For Friday a choppy day is expected for stocks on both indexes. Dips today could be deeper than expected but the bullish sentiment remains for stocks.
Earnings on Thursday after the close were mixed and Marvell Stock (MRVL) fell after hours. This could weigh on the tech sector on Friday. There are a wide number of economic reports due out today, which are listed below. Most won’t impact market direction but the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is something the Fed watches closely. Any wide swings away from estimates could impact market action at the open.
Overall the day is expected to be choppy with a lot of sideways action. The close is expected to be higher or flat.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Holiday
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders fell less than expected by -6.3%
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index was better than estimated, coming in at 4.1%
10:00 Consumer confidence jumped past estimates and rose to 98, showing growing consumer confidence
Wednesday:
2:00 Minutes of FOMC May meeting are released. I expect this will be a non-event today.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were higher than estimated at 240,000
8:30 GDP 1st revision was higher than estimated at -0.2%
10:00 Pending home sales were considerably lower than estimated at -6.3%
Friday:
8:30 Personal income is estimated to slip to 0.3%
8:30 Consumer spending is estimated to fall to 0.2% from 0.7% prior
8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures for April is estimated to rise to 0.1% from 0.0% prior
8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures year-over-year is estimated to have fallen to 2.2% from 2.3% prior
8:30 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is estimated to rise to 0.1% from 0.0% prior
8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 2.6%
8:30 Advanced US trade balance in goods is estimated at -$160 billion
8:30 Advanced retail inventories are estimated unchanged at -0.1%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories is estimated unchanged at 0.4%
9:45 Chicago Business Barometer PMI is estimated to 45.5, up from 44.6 prior
10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated at 50.8 for May, unchanged from April