Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 11 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday the CPI number was higher than estimates. For many analysts it meant that the Fed would probably delay any rate cut longer than expected. Most analysts had picked June as the first rate cut. Now many were talking about September and others about no rate cuts in 2024 at all. That saw stocks spend the day lower. By the close the S&P was down 49 points to $5160 while the NASDAQ fell 136 points to close at 16170.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Wed Apr 10 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Apr 11 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 10 2024

The index closed well below the Upper Bollinger Band and below the 21 day moving average. This is bearish to neutral for a second day.

The closing candlestick came close to reaching the Lower Bollinger Band. While bearish, the candlestick is also typical of a bounce attempt for Thusday.

The 21 day moving average is now turning sideways which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5100, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4708 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are in another Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is turning back up while the Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower. A new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway and at present the squeeze looks like it will end with stocks moving lower.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Thursday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 10 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 11 2024 

The technical indicators are all pointing to a lower day on Thursday. While there is a good chance for a bounce attempt, the technical indicators are advising that any bounce won’t hold on Thursday.

A lower day is expected.

On Thursday before the open investors get the latest Producer Price Index readings. After Wednesday’s CPI being higher than expected, many investors now believe the PPI will also be higher. This will add to selling pressure on Thursday, if the rates are higher than estimated.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The major events this week were on Tuesday with the latest PMI numbers being released and the Fed’s Beige Book due out Wednesday at 2:00 PM and PPI on Thursday.

Monday:

No economic reports

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index is expected to rise slightly to 89.7 Instead it rose to 88.5%.

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer price index wasexpected to be lower at 0.3% versus 0.4% prior. Instead it rose to 0.4%.

8:30 Core CPI was estimated to be 0.3% but rose to 0.4%.

8:30 CPI year-over-year was expected to be 3.4%, but rose to 3.5%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was estimated to be 3.7% but came in at 3.8%

10:00 Wholesale inventories came in as expected at 0.5%

2:00 Minutes of the March FOMC meeting

2:00 Monthly Federal USA budget is estimated at -$220 billion versus the prior -373 billion.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to be 217,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is estimated to fall to 0.3%

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to fall to 0.2%

8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated at 1.6%

8:30 Core PPI tear over year is estimated at 2.8%