Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 14 2020 – Another Bounce Attempt

Friday’s market saw the index make a new low for the recent sell-off when the index slipped to 3310, down to the 50 day moving average. That drop brought in buyers who managed to push back and close the index flat from Thursday’s close. Technically though the action on Friday made some changes on the outlook. Let’s look at Friday’s close to see what Monday may look like.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Sep 11 2020 

On Friday the closing candlestick is pointing to a potential bounce off the 50 day moving average.

The Lower Bollinger Band is back below the 50 day and falling. The Upper Bollinger Band has also turned lower along with the 21 day moving average.

However the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing. There are still 6 up signals and two down signal caused when the Lower Bollinger Band movied above the 100 day moving average back on July 27 and on Aug 31 above the 50 day.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 11 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and oversold. It is at levels where investors should expect a bounce.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Sep 4. On Friday the signal was still lower but showed a bit of leveling off from Thursday’s low.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is trying to climb and is signaling a potential bounce.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is oversold. Often a bounce occurs at this type of signal.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is showing a bounce signal.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating we shouldn’t expect big moves on Monday in prices.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3600 is resistance

3500 is resistance

3450 is resistance

3400 is resistance

3375 is resistance

3300 is support

3275 is support

3200 is support

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is support

2975 is light support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Sep 14 2020 

For Monday the signals have changed from lower, to the potential for a bounce.

None of the technical indicators show a further drop should be expected to start the week. On Friday they all point to the potential for a bounce for Monday.

A further dip could take place on Monday but if it breaks to 3300, watch for a bounce from that level.

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