Prior Trading Day Summary:
The half day of trading on Friday saw low volume but a bullish bias.
The SPX rose slightly up 2 points to end the day at 4559 while the NASDAQ dip 15 points, closing at 14250.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 24 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Nov 27 2023, the first day back from the long Thanksgiving holiday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 24 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways. The outlook is still bullish.
The closing candlestick signals another day of dips should be expected on Monday but a bullish bias remains.
The 21 day moving average moved above the 50 day on Friday. This wiped out the first and last remaining down signal from back in August. There are now no down signals.
The 50 day moving average is continuing to climb above the 100 day.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning up which at present is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing higher which is also bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish and is signaling overbought to start the final week of November.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 24 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Nov 24 2023 the close saw some weakness in the up signal for the second straight day.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is still overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for a second straight day and is very overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling very overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Monday will see choppiness but a larger move, either up or down.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4590 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4565 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4535 is resistance |
| 4520 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4490 is resistance |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4440 is support |
| 4425 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4275 is light support |
| 4250 is light support |
| 4235 is light support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4185 is support |
| 4175 is support |
| 4150 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 27 2023
For the start of the final week of November there are still signs that the bulls will move stocks higher but there are further warnings signs. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which at present is bullish but if the Upper Bollinger Band starts to turn sideways and then lower, we need to watch the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) indicator. If it falls in strength then there is a good chance for a dip in the rally perhaps as much as 3% to 5% to occur over the next week or two. Meanwhile for Monday the technical indicators are showing a higher close is still expected which means dips are opportunities to place further trades.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.
Monday:
10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000