FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 15 2024 – Expect A Bounce

Apr 15, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook bounce expectedPrior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday investors got better than expected bank earnings but sold bank stocks lower. The selling extended into other sectors until by the close the indexes were both down on the day and the week.

The S&P ended the day at 5114 down 84 on the day and 90 for the week. It also left the index at the 50 day moving average which should result in a bounce attempt to start the third week of April.

The NASDAQ closed at 16,151 falling 290 points on the day and 90 for the week.

The third week of April sees earnings getting into full swing. Stocks should either move higher if earnings surprise in strength or move lower if earnings disappoint. We will have a good idea by mid-week.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Fri Apr 12 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Apr 15 2024.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Apr 12 2024

The index closed down at the 50 day moving average and the Lower Bollinger Band. This usually results in a bounce attempt.

The closing candlestick is signaling oversold and due to bounce.

The 21 day moving average is moving lower which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5111, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4717 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are in another Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower with the Upper Bollinger Band also moving lower. A new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway and at present the squeeze looks like it will end with stocks moving lower.

The S&P chart is signaling a good chance for a bounce but more downside is possible after a bounce.

SPX Stock Market Outlook of Fri Apr 12 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. It is oversold.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Apr 2. On Fri Apr 12 2024 the down signal gained strength. The MACD histogram is still strongly negative.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is oversold.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is oversold.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating Monday could end lower. It is however at levels where usually investors can expect a bounce.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5275 is resistance
5250 is resistance
5225 is resistance
5200 is resistance
5190 is resistance
5175 is resistance
5150 is resistance
5125 is support
5115 is support
5100 is support
5075 is support
5050 is support
5025 is support
5000 is light support
4990 is light support
4975 is light support
4950 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 15 2024 

Note that the SPX is now into support levels at 5125 and 5115. The index is oversold. We could see a bounce at the open, some selling and then an attempt to move above 5125. The close should be positive but Tuesday could see further selling depending on earnings. For today, a bounce is likely and a chance to close some trades that are profitable and get ready to open new trades later this week with freed up capital.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

There are major events this week on every day except Friday.  Wednesday we get the Fed’s Beige Book.

Monday:

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is expected to rise to -10.0

8:30 Retails sales are expected to drop to 0.3%

10:00 Business inventories are expected to rise to 0.4%

10:00 Home builder confidence index is expected at 51, unchanged.






Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 20 2024 – Choppy, Dip Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors spent most of the day taking profits until by 2:30 the index was down around 5285. Buyers then stepped back in and pushed the index to close at 5303, back above the 5300 …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 17 2024 discuss the outlook following Thursday’s slightly lower close. Stocks and trade ideas discussed include, NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Applied Materials Stock (AMAT), Apple Stock (AAPL), …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 17 2024 – Overbought – Choppy Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday many investors took profits with indexes sitting at all-time highs. Trading volume on the NASDAQ was the highest in over a year with more than 12 billion shares traded. The SPX saw just shy …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 16 2024 discuss the outlook following Wednesday’s massive rally to new all-time highs. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today including, NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Microsoft …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 16 2024 – Choppy But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the CPI numbers came in on the low side of estimates which cheered investors. From the outset stocks climbed into new highs. By the close, the SPX was above 5300, up 61 points to …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 15 2024 discuss the outlook as investors get the latest CPI numbers this morning. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today including, Intel Stock (INTC), …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 15 2024 – CPI Numbers – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the PPI numbers were disappointing coming in at 0.4% versus the expected 0.2%. The initial reaction was negative but by early afternoon stocks started to rally. By the close the SPX is just a …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 14 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 14 2024 discuss the outlook as investors head into the latest PPI numbers on Tuesday before markets open. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue May 14 2024 – All About The PPI Numbers – Mixed Outlook

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks spent most of the day drifting sideways while waiting for the PPI numbers on Tuesday and CPI numbers on Thursday. Both of these numbers will give a clearer picture of the inflation outlook …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 13 2024 discuss the outlook as markets remain overbought to start the week. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today including, Chevron Stock (CVX), Exxon …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 13 2024 – Overbought – Dips Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks closed almost unchanged with the SPX up 8 points and the NASDAQ down 5 points. Volume was low on both New York and the NASDAQ. Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 10 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 10 2024 discuss the outlook as the index moves higher and deeper into overbought readings. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today including, Morgan Stanley …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 10 2024 – Overbought – Dips Likely But Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks in the morning faced some selling which kept the index under pressure until late in the afternoon. When sellers pulled back the SPX moved higher into the close, reaching 5214, up 26 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 9 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 9 2024 discuss the outlook following a second flat trading day for the SPX. There are comments and a number of trades outlined for today including, ARM Stock (ARM), …