The outlook for stocks on Thursday was for stocks to try to bounce but stay soft and move lower. What we got on Thursday was a see-saw day with stocks pushing to 2060.23 and falling to 2045.77. The close was virttually unchanged ahead of the jobs numbers which are on Friday before the open.
S&P Index Close
The S&P lost 0.49 points for a close at 2050.63 almost unchanged from Wednesday’s close.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones had a slight uptick to close up 9.45 points to 17,660.71.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ fell back just 8.55 points to close at 4717.09.
Stock Market Outlook – Advance Decline Numbers
Volume was unchanged from Wednesday at 4 billion shares traded. Volume was balanced though with down volume comprising 56% of all trades and up volume 42%. 46% of stocks were advancing on Thursday versus 51% that were declining. New highs were still good at 134, down slightly from Wednesday. New lows were virtually unchanged at 28.
The NASDAQ traded 2.5 billion shares. Down volume made up 53% of all trades while up volume was 44%. 61% of all stocks were declining. There were 40 new highs and 59 new lows.
The stock market outlook fROM the advance decline numbers show weakness is growing but the number of new highs in the broad S&P market continues to point to a narrow advance being possible.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Friday May 6 2016
There is no value in the technical indicators after the close tonight as pertaining to Friday. The outlook from a technical perspective was unchanged except rate of change has now also turned negative. All technical indicators were negative at the close on Thursday but with the market trending sideways on Thursday, weakness in the technical indicators is understandable.
It is the jobs numbers that are important for the market on Friday. Strength in the jobs numbers could assist the bulls, but too strong a jump in employment could sell the market lower as investors would worry again about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June.
A soft jobs number that surprises with some weakness could also sell the market lower on Friday. Looking at the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims that have been coming in over the past 5 weeks, the unemployment numbers may be not too much of a surprise.
Totay’s Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 274,000 for last week. Economists had forecast 260,000 as the number they were looking for, following last week’s 257,000. Part of the increase in job seekers can be attributed to students heading into the workforce now that University is finished for this semester.
Today’s jobs number though still provide another week of claims below 300,000 which is now a streak of 61 weeks and is the longest streak since 1973 for job growth.
Friday’s Outlook
With all the technical indicators negative and sentiment poor among investors presently it won’t take much for investors to sell-off the market following the earnings reports.
I am expecting decent numbers but not a “hit out of the park” jobs report. I am not expecting to see any kind of major decline in unemployment for April based on the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims we have seen throughout April.
For Friday I am expecting more weakness but if the numbers are decent but not too exciting, stocks could rally for the morning. The afternoon though could still be negative until investor sentiment improves. But to predict Friday is overall impossible as it is all about the jobs numbers, again.
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