Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 15 2023 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Still Up

Sep 15, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook choppy dips like but up

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Thursday the PPI numbers were higher than estimated but investors bought into stocks anyway. With the ARM IPO hotly traded on Thursday, the SPX ended the day above 4500, up 37.66 at 4505.

The NASDAQ rose 112 points, ending the day at 13,926.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Thu Sep 14 2023 to see what to expect for Fri Sep 15 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 14 2023

The index closed above the 50 and 21 day moving averages. This is the first close above the 50 day in 6 days.

The closing candlestick on Thursday is bullish.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The 21 day moving average is continuing to fall which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is is rising which is also bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is indicating we could see stocks move higher next week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 14 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Aug 29 2023. On Thu Sep 14 2023 the up signal was stronger.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is positive.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4525 is resistance
4500 is resistance
4485 is resistance
4470 is resistance
4450 is support
4435 is support
4420 is support
4400 is support
4390 is support
4370 is support
4350 is support

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 15 2023 

For Friday, the technical indicators are carrying a more bullish stance. The outlook is for the index to rise into the close and into the weekend.

For Friday, watch for a choppy day with a few dips, but with a higher close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week the core CPI numbers on Wednesday and PPI numbers on Thursday were the most important economic reports.


8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Survey

9:15 Industrial Production is expect to rise just 0.2%

9:15 Capacity utilization is expected to be 79.3%, unchanged from last month.

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expect to be 69.2


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