Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thu Jul 16 2026 stock indexes gave back the latest gains as chip stocks fell again and the selling widened to encompass a few more names.
The SPX closed down 38 points to 7533 . Trading volume was 5.4 billion with 54% of stocks on the index rising by the close. For the week though, the index is down 41 points but the sentiment has shifted to bearish.
The NASDAQ with its heavy chip presence fell 387 points to 25,882. Volume rose to 8.5 billion shares traded but is still below average. The close saw 35% of stocks rising. For the week the index is now down 400 points.
You could see momentum shifting during the day on Thursday with stocks like UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) shooting higher to $461 after very strong earnings only to give back most of the gains and close up just $4.86 to $423.38. The stock will probably be lower on Friday.
Another good example was Goldman Sachs Stock (GS) which has soared after its recent earnings but gave back $56.61 or just shy of 5% on Thursday, closing at $1095.46. Signs point to the stock as possibly moving back to the $1000 valuation shortly.
After hours Netflix disappointed as revenue guidance was dropped lower after missing revenue estimates slightly and beating earnings estimates by just 1 cents to 80 cents versus 79 cents estimated. On top of this disappointment they compounded its effect by announcing they would be reducing their detailed viewership reports to once a year. The stock slumped after hours and is set to open lower.
Another stock that reported after the close was Intuitive Surgical Stock (ISRG). They beat estimates but the stock plunged after hours which is indicative of present investor sentiment.
By the close the technical indicators are shifting to a bearish stance to end the week. Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Jul 16 2026 to see what they predict for Fri Jul 17 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 16 2026
The index ended the day above the 21 day moving average. The SPX slipped during the day but managed to close off the lows. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday with one long shadow warnings more dips are likely including a probably test of the 21 day moving average.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7478. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7460. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7237. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6987. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is trending sideways. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending but signals are now showing a chance the rally up will end and stocks will slip lower to find more buyers. Trading volume is low even by summer standards.
The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for Fri Jul 17 2026.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 16 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive. This is still bullish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Mon Jul 6 2026. The up signal was weaker on Thu Jul 16 2026. It won’t take much movement to see a down signal generated from the MACD indicator.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is signaling stocks are overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling which is bearish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling Friday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is support |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
| 7175 is support |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 17 2026
Trading volumes have been low and that is having an impact despite the economic reports that are showing inflation has slowed. Still many investors did not see the new Fed Chair’s comments this week as being dovish. Many analysts and investors saw them as not suggesting any rate cut will be coming anytime soon and the chance of a rate hike later this year is still valid.
Meanwhile the technical indicators are continuing to show that momentum to the upside is struggling and the technical indicator itself has been declining daily. The MACD technical indicator is also signaling that the uptrend is losing strength rapidly. A dip back will shift the outlook to another down signal.
Stocks need to see stronger earnings and an end to the chip sell-off. For Friday that seems unlikely. The outlook has shifted to bearish and a lower close today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index for June came in lower than estimated at -0.4%
8:30 CPI Year-over-year came in lower than estimated at 3.5%
8:30 Core CPI came in lower than estimated at 2.6%
10:00 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is at the House Financial Services Committee
Wednesday:
8:30 PPI for June was lower than estimated coming in at -0.8%
8:30 Personal consumption for June was a lot lower than estimated coming in at 0.2%
10:00 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is testifying at Senate Banking Committee
2:00 Federal Beige Book gave no new information not previously known
Thursday:
8:30 Retail sales for June met estimates at 0.2%, a decline from 0.9% in May.
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Jul 11 were better than estimates, coming in at 208,000 versus 218,000 estimated.
10:00 Pending home sales for Jun were far worse than estimated coming in at -5.4%
Friday:
8:30 Housing Starts for June are estimated to rise to 1.3 million from 1.2 million prior
8:30 Import prices for June are estimated to fall to -0.8% from 1.9%
8:30 Industrial Production for June is estimates to rise to 0.2% from 0.1% prior