Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Jul 7 2026 investors returned their focus to rising oil prices as tension rose in the Iran ceasefire. This combined with continuing worries about AI expense and chip stocks outlook, saw investors selling stocks lower.
The SPX closed down a mild 33 points to 7503 on 5.1 billion shares traded. 57% of all stocks were falling on the SPX by the close.
The NASDAQ fell 302 points to close at 25,818 on light volume of 8.4 billion shares. 63% of all stocks on the NASDAQ were falling by the close as the NASDAQ continues to have difficult staying above 26,000.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Jul 7 2026 to see what they predict for Wed Jul 8 2026
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Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jul 7 2026
The index ended the day still above 21 day moving average. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but with long shadows which signal a choppy day with dips today is likely.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7433. This is bearish as the decline continues.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7410. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7191. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6946. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling as the SPX is into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The outlook is now for stocks to move higher and end the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Wed Jul 8 2026 despite Tuesday’s small decline.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 7 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling but positive. This is still bullish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Mon Jul 6 2026. The up signal was confirmed today although the up signal remains fairly weak.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling which is bearish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling Wednesday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
| 7175 is support |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is good support |
| 7050 is good support |
| 7000 is stronger support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 8 2026
For Wed Jul 8 2026 the technical indicators are mixed but the MACD indicator has confirmed Monday’s up signal. While the reading today was weak, the signal still advises that the SPX should move higher.
Other technical signals though are pointing lower and once again momentum is losing strength which often signals some larger dips being possible.
Overall though the outlook remains bullish even if the day ends lower.
Today investors get the latest FOMC minutes which should be interesting to review but I do not expect anything new to be learned. I am not expecting market direction to be impacted by the minutes release.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 PMI Services was higher than estimated, coming in at 51.2
10:45 ISM Business Services PMI for June was slightly less than estimated coming in at 54
11:00 Global services PMI for June was higher than estimated, coming in at 51.7
Tuesday:
No reports are expected
Wednesday:
2:00 FOMC meeting minutes
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 218,000
10:00 Existing home sales for Jun are estimated unchanged at 4.2 million
Friday:
No reports are expected