Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 12 2024 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday investors got a bit of good news. First the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in lower than expected at 211,000. If the weekly numbers continue to show further weakness it should help ease inflation. Then the Producer Price Index numbers were weaker than estimated coming in at 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Both of these were enough to jump start a rally which by the close had the S&P up 38 points and the NASDAQ higher by 271 points. Thursday’s rally left the S&P down just 5 points for the week but the NASDAQ up 193 points for the week.

The S&P ended the day at 5199. The NASDAQ closed at 16,442 the highest close in 6 months and just 96 points below the all-time high made March 21.

For Friday, bank earnings begin to be reported and that will determine the market direction of the final trading day of the week.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Thu Apr 11 2024 to see what to expect for Fri Apr 12 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Apr 11 2024

The index closed well below the Upper Bollinger Band and back to the 21 day moving average. This is bullish to neutral.

The closing candlestick reached the 21 day moving average by the close which is bullish.

The 21 day moving average is moving sideways which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5105, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4713 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are in another Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is turning back up while the Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower. A new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway and at present the squeeze looks like it will end with stocks moving lower.

The S&P chart is more bullish for Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Apr 11 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 12 2024 

With bank earnings due out before the open markets will move higher if earnings beat estimates. If earnings are lower than expected stocks may find themselves under some pressure again. However the technical indicators are advising that the present period of weakness will not last and the bulls will push stocks higher today or at the start of next week.

Overall, a higher day is anticipated.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The major events this week were on Tuesday with the latest PMI numbers being released and the Fed’s Beige Book due out Wednesday at 2:00 PM and PPI on Thursday.

Monday:

No economic reports

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index is expected to rise slightly to 89.7 Instead it rose to 88.5%.

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer price index wasexpected to be lower at 0.3% versus 0.4% prior. Instead it rose to 0.4%.

8:30 Core CPI was estimated to be 0.3% but rose to 0.4%.

8:30 CPI year-over-year was expected to be 3.4%, but rose to 3.5%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was estimated to be 3.7% but came in at 3.8%

10:00 Wholesale inventories came in as expected at 0.5%

2:00 Minutes of the March FOMC meeting

2:00 Monthly Federal USA budget is estimated at -$220 billion versus the prior -373 billion.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were estimated to be 217,000 but came in at 211,000.

8:30 Producer Price Index was estimated to fall to 0.3% but fell to 0.2% from the prior 0.6%

8:30 Core PPI was estimated to fall to 0.2% which was met

8:30 PPI year-over-year was estimated at 1.6% but surprised at 2.1%

8:30 Core PPI tear over year was estimated at 2.8% and met estimates.

Friday:

8:30 Import price index is estimated at 0.3%

10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated at 79.9%