The outlook for Tuesday was for weakness but a positive close. We got the weakness but also a decent day with the S&P at the highest levels this year.
Oil rose on Tuesday as workers in Kuwait continued their strike. That strike though ended overnight on Tuesday and oil futures show a drop back below $40 for WTI for Wednesday. Whether oil futures stay below $40 by the time the market opens on Wednesday is not yet known but the outlook is for oil to stay under pressure.
S&P Index Close
The S&P pushed to above 2100 during the day and closed at 2100.80 up 6.46 points for a smaller gain than Tuesday.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed at 18053.60 up 49.44 points but showing signs of being overbought.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed down 19.69 points at 4940.33 and was the only major index to close lower.
Stock Market Outlook – Advance Decline Numbers
Volume rose more than half a million shares on Tuesday to 3.89 billion. Volume to the upside was 79% and there were 175 new highs and just 7 new lows.
The NASDAQ traded 1.86 billion shares with 40% of all volume to the upside and 59% to the downside. Advancing issues still were ahead 50% to 46% for declining issues. As well new highs were up slightly at 64 and new lows were lower at 21.
The increase in volume came from sellers who used the move above 2100 to unload positions and take profits. The advance decline numbers show that stocks are under pressure but any decline in stocks should be short-lived at this point in the rally.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Tonight is a shortened version as I am also posting trades in the members section for Wednesday before the markets open.
Technically the S&P is overbought and is showing signs of wanting to pullback a bit. The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Momentum is still rising but MACD has not really confirmed the up signal. What is interesting is the 100 day is preparing to move above the 200 day shortly. This could happen by next week. This would be a major buy signal.
The Ultimate Oscillator is overbought and the Rate Of Change is indicating that the trend up is still intact but the market will take a bit of a break.
Both stochastic indicators are extremely overbought and nearing neutral readings.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wednesday Apr 20 2016
The technical indicators are mixed a bit more at the close on Tuesday. This is understandable after pushing to 2100 today. Some resistance is definitely going to happen at this level.
The outlook for Wednesday is a mixed day with stocks under pressure. Stocks may try to push higher still in the morning but will experience weakness and some selling. The close on Wednesday looks to be slightly negative.
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