The Market Direction on Wednesday was strong from the outset and moved higher throughout the day until into the mid afternoon around 2:00 PM. The market made a high then and pulled back. The pullback was very small and the market direction continued back up recovering the mid-afternoon high. The market closed just off the high for the day, but today marked the first time in quite some time that the market direction had three days of follow through.
The market direction has followed my market direction technical indicators for quite a few sessions now so I won’t be surprised to hit a few errors soon. This kind of winning streak for predicting market direction can’t hold forever.
Much of the market direction push higher today was in large part a result of the Fed minutes which seemed to convince investors that the Fed would be printing money right through to the end of the year and perhaps into next. Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims and the way the market is, if the claims are poor, you would have to wonder if investors would buy even more based on the belief that the Fed has put a stop in place on the market. The Bernanke “Put’ would appear to be back or certainly a lot of investors thing so.
The S&P 500 and the Dow set new all time highs once again today.
Market Direction Closing For Apr 10 2013
The S&P 500 closed at 1587.73 up 19.12 points and the Dow closed at 14802.24 up 128.78 points. The NASDAQ closed at 3297.25, up 59.40 points.
Market Direction Russell 2000 (IWM)
Meanwhile the small cap ETF, the Russell 2000 (IWM) which I have mentioned yesterday finally broke out of its slump and had an excellent day moving up 1.81%.
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Apr 10 2013
Let’s take a moment now and review the market direction technical indicators at the close on the S&P 500 and view the outlook for Thursday April 11.
For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is positive and rising higher from yesterday.
For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) is pretty well neutral and on the verge of giving a buy signal if tomorrow the market direction continues higher.
The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
The Ultimate Oscillator is now overbought which could signal a bit of weakness for tomorrow.
Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. Rate Of Change is still positive and has moved up substantially today.
For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is signaling market direction still up and it is now overbought.
For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is extremely overbought but is still signaling market direction is up.
Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for Apr 11 2013
The market direction outlook from the technical indicators is no longer split. All the indicators are showing that this rally has strength. While tomorrow there could easily be some weakness due to the overbought condition after three very good sessions and all time new highs, any weakness should be short-lived and I will be doing any Put Selling possible on my favorite stocks. The mood is upbeat and the media has dropped the bears from the interview process and returned to the bulls. Today I heard forecasts of 18,000 on the Dow by year-end.
These are the kinds of remarks that makes me glad to be Put Selling as the prime method of investing. But the market direction tomorrow should see some weakness probably in the morning and then I would expect another move higher although certainly not as high as we saw today. I am expecting just a move of perhaps 30 to 40 points on the Dow and 4 to 6 on the S&P tomorrow. The close could be weak as investors take profits. many stocks set new 52 week highs yesterday and there is bound to be profit taking.
For now, the market direction is up.
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