Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Nov 3 2026 stocks attempted a second bounce. While strength was limited, the SPX and NASDAQ managed to close positive ahead of the mid-terms.
The S&P closed up 27 points to end the day at 7568. Volume was 200 million shares lower at 5.6 billion. 60% of volume was traded lower and 60% of stocks were falling by the close despite the positive close.
The NASDAQ rose 207 points ending the day at 25372. Volume was lower by 800 million shares to 8.7 billion. There were 311 new 52 week lows. 68% of all volume was being traded higher with 51% of stocks rising by the close.
Stocks were basically in limbo on Tuesday waiting for the mid-term election results. The outlook is for a democrat sweep of both Houses.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Nov 3 2026 to see what they predict for Wed Nov 4 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 3 2026
The index ended the day below the Upper Bollinger Band and the 21, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is very bearish.
The closing candlestick is indicating that Tuesday was simply a bounce. The candlestick is still bearish.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7711. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 7692. This is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 7583. This is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7349. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 21, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is very negative for stocks. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bearish until the Lower Bollinger Band changes direction.
The SPX chart is bearish for Wed Nov 4 2026.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 3 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. This is bearish. At a reading of -140 the indicator is becoming oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 15 2026. The down signal was stronger on Tuesday and issignaling stocks are oversold.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place which is bearish. It is also at oversold readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising but still bearish. It is signaling oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling that Wednesday will end lower. It is also oversold. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7800 is resistance |
| 7780 is resistance |
| 7750 is resistance |
| 7700 is resistance |
| 7650 is resistance |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7570 is support |
| 7550 is support |
| 7500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 4 2026
For Wednesday stocks are facing a change in both Houses as the Democrats take control in a major blue landslide. This will be seen as bearish although historically no matter who wins the mid-terms stocks are higher by year-end after the mid-terms. Earnings from Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD) were stellar and the stock rose $24 after hours for a 5% rally. Whether the stock can hold that rally when trading resumes today is anyone’s guess but the outlook is not in favor of the stock. I expect most tech names will fall on Wednesday as investors weigh what changes the Democrats could bring to the tech outlook for the country.
The outlook is for a lower day on Wednesday and a retest of 7500 on the SPX still seems likely.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 Manufacturing PMI for Oct was lower than estimated, coming in at 54.9
10:00 Construction spending for Sept was much lower than estimated coming in negative at -1.5%
Tuesday:
Mid-Terms
10:00 Job openings and Labor Turnover for Sep was higher than estimated coming in at 7.5 million.
10:00 Factory orders for Sepwere much stronger than estimated, rising to 1.8%
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP National Employment report for October estimates 75,000 jobs down from 90,000 prior
8:30 Trade Balance for Sep is estimated to fall to -107.7 billion
9:45 US Services PMI for Oct is estimated almost unchanged at 58
10:00 ISM Report On Business Services PMI for Oct is estimated at 54.8 down only slightly from 54.9 prior