Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thu Jul 2 2026 the June Non-Farm Payroll Numbers came out much weaker than expected. Stocks initially shot higher but then spent most of the day giving back the early gains. By the close the SPX was flat.
The SPX closed at 7483 on 3.4 billion shares traded. Volume though was 70% advancing and for the week the SPX gained 129 points, the best weekly gain since the second week of May.
The NASDAQ fell 207 points to close at 25,832 on 9.9 billion shares traded as tech stocks were back being sold. For the week though, the NASDAQ gained 535 points.
Volumes were low on the SPX on Thursday ahead of the July 4th long weekend. Monday could see lower than usual volume as well, which is typical for the July 4th weekend.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Jul 2 2026 to see what they predict for Mon Jul 6 2026.
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Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 2 2026
The index ended the day above 21 day moving average. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Mondsay but with long shadows top and bottom which signals dips likely but also a chance for a rally higher.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7438. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7394. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7178. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6934. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling as the SPX is into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. We should see stocks make a larger move either higher or lower. At present the outlook is for a higher move.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Mon Jul 6 2026.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 2 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum isrising and positive. This is bullish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue May 19 2026. On Thu Jul 2 2026 the down signal is on the verge of being an up signal. This should happen today.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged which is neutral.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling, signaling Monday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
| 7175 is support |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is good support |
| 7050 is good support |
| 7000 is stronger support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 6 2026
For Monday the technical indicators are pointing to a choppy day with some dips but a higher close. Volume today will be lighter which often can cause larger swings. Dips today are opportunities to setup trades.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 PMI Services is estimated unchanged at 50.7
10:45 ISM Business Services PMI for June is estimated at 54.3 down slightly from 54.5 prior
11:00 Global services PMI for June is estimated at 51.3