Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Jun 30 2026 the indexes continued their advances. The SPX closed up 59 points to 7499 on 6.2 billion shares traded. 45% of all stocks were rising by the close. The past two days have recovered all of last week’s losses.
The NASDAQ rose 393 points to close at 26,213 on 10.3 billion shares traded. By the close 50% of all stocks were rising on the index. Unlike the SPX, the NASDAQ is 300 points shy of recovering last week’s 1217 point loss.
Tuesday was not as strong as Monday as many stocks are back overbought.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Jun 30 2026 to see what they predict for Wed Jul 1 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jun 30 2026
The index ended the day back above 21 day moving average. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but also signals that stocks are becoming overbought again.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7450. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7378. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7165. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6923. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling as the SPX enters a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Wed Jul 1 2026.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative, This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue May 19 2026. On Tue Jun 30 2026 the down signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is turning bullish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising which is bullish. It is nearing overbought levels.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling Wednesday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
| 7175 is support |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is good support |
| 7050 is good support |
| 7000 is stronger support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 1 2026
For Wednesday the closing candlestick is advising that stocks are entering overbought readings. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is also beginning. Stocks could move higher or lower out of the latest squeeze. At present the outlook is for stocks to move higher out of the squeeze but first stocks will dip. This is a shortened week. Friday is a holiday. For that reason the June Non-Farm Payroll Numbers are released on Thursday at 8:30. I am placing a trade this morning in the SPY ahead of the June numbers. The employment numbers tend to provide choppy trading and often large swings, up or down. I will post the trade late morning.
For today though, investors should watch for dips which are likely in the morning. Dips though, no matter how deep, are opportunities to setup more trades, in my opinion and I will be using weakness today to setup some trades.
July 4 Independence Day Membership Specials
Investors have asked for membership specials to celebrate Independence Day. The sale will start Friday July 3 and run until Tuesday July 7. I hope investors who have waited to join at discounted prices, take advantage of the Independence Day Special.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
9:45 Chicago business barometercame in at 56.7, down from 62.7 prior
10:00 Conference board consumer confidence was lower than estimated, coming in at 91.2 versus a forecast of 94.2. This was still higher than the prior reading which was 90.6
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP National employment report is estimated to show 110,000 jobs versus 122,000 prior
9:45 Manufacturing PMI is estimated to come in at 55.7
10:00 ISM Business Manufacturing report is estimated slightly lower at 53.9 versus 54 prior
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 220,000 up slightly from 215,000 prior
8:30 Employment report is estimated to show 115,000 jobs created, down from 172,000 prior
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated at 4.3%, unchanged
8:30 Average hourly earnings month to month are estimated at 0.3% unchanged from 0.3% prior
8:30 Average hourly earnings year-over-year are estimated unchanged at 3.5%
10:00 Factory orders are estimated to have dropped -1.3% for May from 4.8% prior