Stock Market Outlook For Thu Jul 2 2026 – All About June Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Wed Jul 1 2026 stocks experienced some weakness as many investors wait for the June Non-Farm Payroll Numbers due out today at 8:30.

The SPX lost 16 points to close at 7483 on 5.9 billion shares traded. volume was evenly split with 50% advancing and 50% declining. 55% of stocks were rising. For the week, the SPX is still up 129 points.

The NASDAQ fell 173 points to close at 26,040 on 9.4 billion shares traded. By the close 52% of all stocks were rising on the index. Volume was also almost equally split with 51% of all volume rising and 48% falling.

The day was primarily neutral but there were many stocks making larger moves. Chip stocks were being sold lower while health care stocks were rising.

With the June Non-Farm Payroll Numbers due out at 8:30, the day may see some larger market moves depending on the jobs numbers released.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Jul 1 2026 to see what they predict for Thu Jul 2 2026, ahead of Friday’s holiday.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 1 2026 

The index ended the day just above 21 day moving average. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday but with long shadows which signal indecision to start Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7444. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7386. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7172. This is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6929. This is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling as the SPX moves into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Thu Jul 2 2026.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 1 2026

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 2 2026 

For Thursday the open will be determined by the June payroll numbers. Once the initial move is made by investors, the technical indicators will have more effect. At present they are more bullish than bearish. That means the June numbers have to be “pretty bad” for stocks to fall today. I am anticipating a higher close on Thursday but a lot of the outlook depends on the employment numbers.

July 4 Independence Day Membership Specials

Investors have asked for membership specials to celebrate Independence Day. The sale will start Friday July 3 and run until Tuesday July 7. I hope investors who have waited to join at discounted prices, take advantage of the Independence Day Special.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

9:45 Chicago business barometercame in at 56.7, down from 62.7 prior

10:00 Conference board consumer confidence was lower than estimated, coming in at 91.2 versus a forecast of 94.2. This was still higher than the prior reading which was 90.6

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP National employment report came in lower than estimated at 98,000

9:45 Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates at 53.9

10:00 ISM Business Manufacturing report was slightly below estimates at 53.3

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 220,000 up slightly from 215,000 prior

8:30 Employment report is estimated to show 115,000 jobs created, down from 172,000 prior

8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated at 4.3%, unchanged

8:30 Average hourly earnings month to month are estimated at 0.3% unchanged from 0.3% prior

8:30 Average hourly earnings year-over-year are estimated unchanged at 3.5%

10:00 Factory orders are estimated to have dropped -1.3% for May from 4.8% prior

Friday:

No reports – holiday