Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 17 2019 – Weakness With Dips Likely

Weakness Dips Likely

Monday saw the S&P close below 3000. Over the lunch hour it fell to 2990 but recovered to close down just 2 points below 3000 at 2998.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Sep 16 2019 

The 21 day moving average is continuing to climb and should reach the 50 day this week and move above it. That will be a major up signal when it occurs.

The closing candlestick on Monday is bearish and often a reversal signal so we could see a negative day or two shortly.

The 50 day moving average is moving sideways. The 100 and 200 are climbing signaling further up side is ahead.

The S&P chart is more bullish again, heading into Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 16 2019


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive but moving sideways indicating not much upside is expected on Tuesday.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thurs Aug 29. The up signal was weaker at the close on Monday.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive but moving sideways.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is signaling sideways which means prices are not expected to climb or fall.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is good support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Sep 17 2019 

The market is still overbought and we should see more weakness on Tuesday.

The index should move back above 3000 but it will also fall back to 2990 before closing slightly lower again as another weak day is expected with dips.

On Wednesday we get the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Often the afternoon of the day before any announcement will see stocks rise in mid-afternoon so Tuesday could surprise with a rise late in the day.


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