Mon Oct 14 2019 saw the lowest volume in over a year as the bond market was closed and investors held back on their trades. The day ended with the S&P falling just 4 points to close down at 2966. Not much changed in the technical indicators but it is still worth a look at Tuesday’s expected market action.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Oct 14 2019
There is very little change to the technical indicators on Monday by the close.
The 21 day moving average is now down below the 2960 level and is showing no signs that it will not continue to fall further, however the candlestick closed above the 21 day but left behind a neutral outlook for Tuesday. Often the candlestick from Monday, signals a down day coming soon.
The Lower Bollinger Bands is sideways but the Upper Bollinger Band is turning down. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is still falling and could fall below the 100 day early this week. If it fails to do so, it will be a very bullish signal.
The 100 day moving average is back moving sideways. Only the 200 day moving average is still climbing.
The two buy signals from September are still in place.
The S&P chart is mixed but is holding a strong up bias.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Oct 14 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued down signal on Fri Sep 27 2019. The down signal was almost gone on Monday.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is moving sideways with little change expected.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving sideways with little change expected.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways with little change expected.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3000 is resistance
2960 is resistance
2950 was light support
2900 is light support
2860 is light support
2840 is support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Oct 15 2019
There is very little change for Tuesday. Monday’s low volume day left the indexes slightly lower but with low volume, that is to be expected.
Tuesday morning before opening we get a number of bank earnings reports. These could impact markets either way, depending on the earnings numbers.
Bank stocks could be the biggest influence on stocks for Tuesday.
For Tuesday the outlook is unchanged at dips but a higher close.
The week should see the S&P move above 3000 as long as there is no negative news on the trade deal with China.
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