FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 9 2022 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close

Aug 9, 2022 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Dips Likely - Lower CLoseMonday saw the S&P open and push higher but by 11:00 the rally was over and the index spent the rest of the day falling. By the close the SPX was down just 5 points at 4140 but it was third straight day of the rally being unable to push higher.

The NASDAQ saw weakness thanks in large part to a drop in NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) as the company reported next quarterly earnings would be considerably lower than expected.  The index closed down just 13 points to 12,644 but the semiconductor sector saw wide spread selling.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Monday to see what to expect for Tue Aug 9 2022.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Aug 8 2022 

The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday. The index reached the 200 day moving average and then fell back. It still closed above the 100 day moving average.

The 21 day moving average is still rising and is above the 50 day for a fifth day. The 50 day moving average is also turning higher. Both are bullish.

The first up signal since April which was released Tuesday Aug 2.

The Upper Bollinger Band is rising and continued to move above the 200 day moving average which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is trending sideways which is bullish.

The 200 and 100 day moving average are still falling which is bearish.

There are 3 down signals still in place and one new up signal.

The chart is 80% bullish for Tuesday. This is the same bullish percentage we saw both Thursday, Friday and Monday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Aug 8 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Monday the up signal weakened. The histogram also weakened. Both are still bullish but the strength of the signals is starting to wane.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling but still in overbought readings.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4200 is light resistance

4150 is light resistance

4100 is light resistance

4050 is light resistance

4025 is light support

4000 is light support

3975 is light support and is a decline of 17.5%

3900 is light support and is a decline of 19%

3850 is light support and is a decline of 20%

3825 is light resistance.

3800 is good support.

3775 is light support

3750 is light support

3730 is light support

3700 is good support

3675 is light support

3650 is light support

3625 is light support

3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Aug 9 2022 

For Tuesday the S&P chart is once again 80% bullish, for a fourth straight day. Often we can expect to see the index break and move higher but the technical indicators are mixed and none are pointing higher as of Monday’s close.

The chart itself is more bullish than the technical indicators. MACD continues to lose strength but it is still at fairly bullish readings.

Overall the signals are still more bullish than bearish. The technical indicators though are showing further weakness. The MACD signal has been losing strength for two days. For Tuesday dips are again likely. The morning may open higher but dips should be expected. There is a better chance of another lower close but the index is doing a good job of hanging on above 4100. That means investors should not be surprised if the SPX pushed and closed at or above 4175 on Tuesday despite the more bearish outlook.

Potential Market Moving Events

This week we get some inflation numbers on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Those could cause some market gyrations.

Monday:

11:00 NY Fed 3-year inflation outlook. Previously it was 3.6%. The reading came in at 3.2%.

Tuesday:

8:30 Productivity

8:30 Unit Labor Costs

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 18 2024 – Bounce Likely

Stock Market Outlook - Bounce Likely
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors opened the day lower and tried a weak bounce which ran into sellers as the SPX reach 5135 shortly before 11:00 AM. That ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 15 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 15 2024 discuss the outlook now that the PPI numbers are known. There are also a number of trade ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 15 2024 – More Weakness But Bounce Attempt Possible

Stock Market Outlook More Weakness Bounce still possible
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors and analysts were surprised by the jump in inflation as shown by the PPI (Producer Price Index). Even with energy and food removed ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 14 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 14 2024 discuss the PPI numbers and how they may impact stocks today. There are also a number of ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 14 2024 – Back To More Inflation Numbers – Higher Close Expected

Stock Market Outlook - Higher
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors spent a choppy day trading among market leaders both selling and others buying. By the close the SPX had lost just 10 points ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 13 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 13 2024 discuss the outlook for the day. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Dollar ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 13 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Stock Market Outlook Morning weakness possible but higher close
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the CPI numbers were actually a bit higher than expected but investors decided that the CPI numbers were not high enough for the Fed ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 12 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 12 2024 discuss the outlook for the day. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Oracle ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 12 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt Likely

Stock Market Outlook Another bounce attempt probable
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday investors continued to sell tech stocks that have run higher. These included Supermicro Stock (SMCI), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 11 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 11 2024 discuss Friday's non-farm payroll numbers along with the outlook for interest rate cuts. There are also a ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 11 2024 – Bounce Likely But Lower

Stock Market Outlook - Bounce Likely But Lower
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday the February non-farm payroll numbers was stronger than expected at 275,000 versus 198,000 estimated but surprisingly the prior two months were reduced by ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 8 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 8 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday once the February non-farm payroll numbers are released. There are also a ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 8 2024 – All About February Non-Farm Payroll Report

All About The Non-Farm Payroll Report
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks moved dramatically higher to new all-time highs. The S&P rose 52 points to close at 5157 and intraday reached 5165 on 4.2 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 7 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 7 2024 discuss Wednesday's rebound rally and the outlook for Thursday. There are a large number of trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 7 2024 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal

Stock Market Outlook confirmed MACD down signal
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors tried to rebound from Tuesday's sell-off. As Fed Chair Powell testified, stocks pushed to the high of the day but much of ....... Read More

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 18 2024 – Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors opened the day lower and tried a weak bounce which ran into sellers as the SPX reach 5135 shortly before 11:00 AM. That proved to be the high of the day as the …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 15 2024 discuss the outlook now that the PPI numbers are known. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Adobe Stock (ADBE), BCE Stock (BCE),  Dollar …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 15 2024 – More Weakness But Bounce Attempt Possible

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors and analysts were surprised by the jump in inflation as shown by the PPI (Producer Price Index). Even with energy and food removed from PPI was still up sharp enough that analysts now …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 14 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 14 2024 discuss the PPI numbers and how they may impact stocks today. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Adobe Stock (ADBE), Dick’s Sporting Goods …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 14 2024 – Back To More Inflation Numbers – Higher Close Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors spent a choppy day trading among market leaders both selling and others buying. By the close the SPX had lost just 10 points to close at 5165 and the NASDAQ lost 88 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 13 2024 discuss the outlook for the day. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Dollar Tree Store (DLTR), Dollar General Stock (DG), TQQQ ProShares, VIX …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 13 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the CPI numbers were actually a bit higher than expected but investors decided that the CPI numbers were not high enough for the Fed to not consider rate cuts probably earlier rather than later …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 12 2024 discuss the outlook for the day. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Oracle Stock (ORCL), TQQQ ProShares UltraPro 3X Bull (TQQQ), Dollar Tree …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 12 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday investors continued to sell tech stocks that have run higher. These included Supermicro Stock (SMCI), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD), Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), Micron Technology Stock (MU), …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 11 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 11 2024 discuss Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers along with the outlook for interest rate cuts. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Broadcom …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 11 2024 – Bounce Likely But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday the February non-farm payroll numbers was stronger than expected at 275,000 versus 198,000 estimated but surprisingly the prior two months were reduced by 167,000. Wages however rose just 0.1% well below estimates. The initial …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 8 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 8 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday once the February non-farm payroll numbers are released. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Costco Stock (COST), Broadcom …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 8 2024 – All About February Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks moved dramatically higher to new all-time highs. The S&P rose 52 points to close at 5157 and intraday reached 5165 on 4.2 billion shares traded. Thursday’s action brought the S&P 20 points above …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 7 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 7 2024 discuss Wednesday’s rebound rally and the outlook for Thursday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including KRE ETF, Palantir Tech Stock (PLTR), Costco Stock …