Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 points to close at 5248. The NASDAQ rose 83 points to close at 16,399.
On the SPX there were 242 new 52 week highs and just 13 new lows. 85% of all volume was being traded to the upside.
Let’s review the close on Wed Mar 27 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Mar 28.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 27 2024
The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish for the index.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday but also indicates there could be a dip intraday.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5158 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5036, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4663 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and moving higher which is usually bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend. This is also bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 27 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 21. On Tue Mar 26 2024 a new unconfirmed down signal was generated. On Wednesday the signal is neutral..
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating Thursday will see a higher close to end the month of March.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024
For the final trading day of March, the SPX is positioned to move higher in a choppy day with some dips.
On Thursday we get the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims but the more important report is on Friday when we get retail inventories and wholesale inventories. As well we also get the PCE index latest readings. As these are released on Friday when the market is closed, we could see the start of next week, reflecting whatever the economic reports show. The more important report on Friday is the PCE Index. Too high a number will spook investors while too low a number will be of concern.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday we get durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Friday is a holiday but the PCE numbers are released at 8:30 and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:30.
Monday:
10:00 New home sales are estimated to be lower at 675,000
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods order are expected to rise to 1% from -6.2%
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to be unchanged at 106.5
Wednesday:
There are no economic events
Thursday:
8:30 Advanced retail inventories
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories
8:30 Personal income and spending
8:30 PCE Index
8:30 A couple of Core PCE index
11:30 Fed Chair Powell speaks