Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 were still “on the table” was all that investors needed to hear to continue the rally into uncharted territory.

The SPX closed up 46 points to close at 5225. 81% of all volume traded was to the upside and 74% of all stocks were moving higher. These were the highest percentages since Feb 15.  For the week so far, the S&P is up 107.53 points.

The NASDAQ closed up 202 points, ending the day at 16369. For the week the index is up 396 points. 80% of all volume was traded higher and 70% of all stocks were climbing by the close on Wednesday.

Let’s review the close on Wed Mar 20 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Mar 21 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 20 2024

The index closed above the Upper Bollinger Band and well above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish for the index.

The closing candlestick is strongly bullish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5110 on the SPX.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4980, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4630 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band moved back above the 50 day on Thursday last week which is bearish but on Wednesday the Lower Bollinger Band started to turn lower which if it falls below the 50 day moving average will be bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend.

The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday with no bearish signals.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 20 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 

As of the close on Wednesday two more support levels were added to the index/ The 5075 and 5100 valuations are support in the continuing rally.

For Thursday the technical indicators all positive for the index to move higher. Only two of the indexes are starting to enter overbought readings and have more upside before they will show extremely overbought.

The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence lost the down signal at the close on Wednesday. On Thursday we should get an unconfirmed up signal.

On Thursday the outlook is still higher for stocks. That means dips if they occur, are opportunities to setup more trades. There are a number of economic reports which you can review below. Any miss will have to be quite large or very unexpected to slow the rally today.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Wednesday and Thursday are the busiest days for economic reports that could change market direction.

Monday:

10:00 Home Builder confidence index came in as expected at 48 which is basically “steady” for housing.

Tuesday:

8:30 Housing starts are expected at 1.43 million

8:30 Building permits are estimated to be 1.49 million

Wednesday:

2:00 FOMC interest rate decision

2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is estimated at 213,000

8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is estimated to fall to -5.0, down from 5.2

9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated at 52.0

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated at 51.8

10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to rise to -0.1% up from -0.4%

10:00 Existing home sales are expected to dip to 3.95 million from 4.0 million